Katrina and the Waves

[Guyz-N-Flyz]

There'll be no "walkin' on sunshine" for the folks of Louisiana. This looks
like the storm that all of the gulf states have been dreading for decades.
This storm looks even bigger than Andrew, physically; and if it maintains
it's current strength, New Orleans may be no more after Monday.

Any of you ROFFians, still in harms way, grab your families, friends, and
pets and get the hell out of there!

Mark

[asadi]

Boy Mark it does look like a doozy. New Orleans has been the feature of more
than one news story, in regards to hurricanes. Isn't a lot of the coast or
city area at sea level or below? Something about the lay of the land that
makes it especially vulnerable to flooding in some peculiar way?

john
"Guyz-N-Flyz" > wrote in message
...
>
> There'll be no "walkin' on sunshine" for the folks of Louisiana. This
looks
> like the storm that all of the gulf states have been dreading for decades.
> This storm looks even bigger than Andrew, physically; and if it maintains
> it's current strength, New Orleans may be no more after Monday.
>
> Any of you ROFFians, still in harms way, grab your families, friends, and
> pets and get the hell out of there!
>
> Mark
>
>

[Wayne Knight]

"asadi" > wrote in message
.. .
> Boy Mark it does look like a doozy. New Orleans has been the feature of
> more
> than one news story, in regards to hurricanes. Isn't a lot of the coast or
> city area at sea level or below? Something about the lay of the land that
> makes it especially vulnerable to flooding in some peculiar way?

Well most of the city is below sea level, protected only by a series of
dikes and pump drainage systems which they say can be breached easily in a
large hurricane. Add to it the destruction of the delta over the past few
decades and you have a recipe for large problems.

[Bob Patton]

"asadi" > wrote in message
.. .
> Boy Mark it does look like a doozy. New Orleans has been the feature of
> more
> than one news story, in regards to hurricanes. Isn't a lot of the coast or
> city area at sea level or below? Something about the lay of the land that
> makes it especially vulnerable to flooding in some peculiar way?
>
> john
//snip//

Downtown New Orleans is actually below sea level. But here's what's really
interesting: the natural course of the Mississppi river is not its present
course past Baton Rouge and New Orleans to the Gulf. It naturally would
would turn right north of BR and flow into the Atchafalaya River system, and
thence to the Gulf near Morgan City, well west of New Orleans.

It's prevented from doing that by a Corps of Engineers project called the
"Old River Control Structure". If that structure, built in 1963 to solve
problems that had been accumulating for two hundered years, were to fail,
the results would be catastrophic for both New Orleans and Morgan City.

--
Bob Patton
(remove hat to respond)

[asadi]

"Bob Patton" >
> Downtown New Orleans is actually below sea level. But here's what's really
> interesting: the natural course of the Mississppi river is not its present
> course past Baton Rouge and New Orleans to the Gulf. It naturally would
> would turn right north of BR and flow into the Atchafalaya River system,
and
> thence to the Gulf near Morgan City, well west of New Orleans.
>
> It's prevented from doing that by a Corps of Engineers project called the
> "Old River Control Structure". If that structure, built in 1963 to solve
> problems that had been accumulating for two hundered years, were to fail,
> the results would be catastrophic for both New Orleans and Morgan City.
>
> --
> Bob Patton
> (remove hat to respond)
>

I just went to a couple of news sites and read some stories about the dikes
and pumps and such.... this could be bad...

john

[Wayne Harrison]

"asadi" > wrote

> I just went to a couple of news sites and read some stories about the
> dikes
> and pumps and such.... this could be bad...

sustained winds now at 175mph. this will be the worst ever. good luck
to all.

yfitons
wayno

[riverman]

Glad I'm not in New Orleans! I heard that in a worst case scenario, it
would be entirely flooded for several weeks until they could pump it
out, but would probably be partying for Mardi Gras. The real question
is about what will happen to the shape of the coastline and the few
surviving islands. If Katrina moves 100 miles or so westward, the Old
River Control Structure could be deeply threatened, but with the storm
to the East of the dam, I think there's no real danger of that being
washed out. Hell, if it could withstand the flood of (what was
it...93?), then one hurricane dumping tons of rain <downstream> isn't
such a big worry.

Nonetheless, the next day or so will be a horrendous one for New
Orleans, and the folks just northeast of there. Hang on, folks.

--riverman

[Bob Patton]

"riverman" > wrote in message
ps.com...
> Glad I'm not in New Orleans! I heard that in a worst case scenario, it
> would be entirely flooded for several weeks until they could pump it
> out, but would probably be partying for Mardi Gras. The real question
> is about what will happen to the shape of the coastline and the few
> surviving islands. If Katrina moves 100 miles or so westward, the Old
> River Control Structure could be deeply threatened, but with the storm
> to the East of the dam, I think there's no real danger of that being
> washed out. Hell, if it could withstand the flood of (what was
> it...93?), then one hurricane dumping tons of rain <downstream> isn't
> such a big worry.
>
> Nonetheless, the next day or so will be a horrendous one for New
> Orleans, and the folks just northeast of there. Hang on, folks.
>
> --riverman

I think you're right - there's probably not a huge threat to the ORCS - it
has come through some large floods. The flood of '93 was a bigger deal north
of Louisiana. Below Cairo the Mississippi is large enough to handle the
increased flows from Iowa and Missouri because there was relatively little
rainfall south of Missouri and there was a smaller percentage increase in
volume below the confluence with the Ohio. Also, today the rivers are a
little low because of the drought in the northern midwest. But the ORCS
still represents a man-made barrier to the natural course of the river. I'm
reminded of Ralph Kramden's frequent comment to his wife: "One of these
days, Alice, one of these days . . . !"

I used to travel all over Louisiana on business, and am thinking today of
people in places like Houma, Thibodaux, and Lafayette.

Now: which direction will Katrina go next? My guess is that people in the
Tennessee valley and western NC had better stock up on lamp oil.


--
Bob Patton
(remove hat to respond)

[Tim J.]

Bob Patton wrote:
<snip>
> I used to travel all over Louisiana on business, and am thinking
> today of people in places like Houma, Thibodaux, and Lafayette.

My thoughts, too. I have quite a few friends and associates in Houma,
and I surely hope they are no longer in Houma - for now. My thoughts are
also with the folks within 100 miles east of where the eye landfall
takes place. The people on the FL panhandle must be shell-shocked by
now.
--
TL,
Tim
---------------------------
http://css.sbcma.com/timj/

[Conan The Librarian]

Tim J. wrote:

> My thoughts, too. I have quite a few friends and associates in Houma,
> and I surely hope they are no longer in Houma - for now.

Small world. SWMBO and I were in Houma a couple of years back. We
went to Bayou Black for one of their bayou tours and stopped in Houma at
the seafood restaurant right near the intersection of Bayou Black Road
and the main highway. It was a Friday or Saturday afternoon and it
looked like they were getting the place ready for a big dance that
night. We were obviously outsiders, but they invited us to stay.
Unfortunately, we had already made plans in New Orleans for the night.

Here's hoping they all make it through safely. Latest word from the
National Hurricane Center has her as a category 4 and the surge is
expected to be between 18-22'.


Chuck Vance

[Scott Seidman]

"asadi" > wrote in
:

> I just went to a couple of news sites and read some stories about the
> dikes and pumps and such.... this could be bad...
>
> john
>
>
>

About 10 years ago, I was reading an article in "American Heritage of
Technology and Invention" about the levee and pump system in the Big EZ.
That's when I found out that the system was built to handle a Class 3
hurricane, and that anything bigger could be a disaster. This was known
before construction of the system ever began.

It makes you wonder just who's got the keys to our infrastructure.

--
Scott
Reverse name to reply

[Cyli]

On 29 Aug 2005 13:23:34 GMT, Scott Seidman
> wrote:


>
>About 10 years ago, I was reading an article in "American Heritage of
>Technology and Invention" about the levee and pump system in the Big EZ.
>That's when I found out that the system was built to handle a Class 3
>hurricane, and that anything bigger could be a disaster. This was known
>before construction of the system ever began.
>
>It makes you wonder just who's got the keys to our infrastructure.


I'd bet on politicians and contractors.

But there are sometimes reasons. You can't overbuild everything for
worst case scenario or you might not be able to afford to build much
else.

It's Louisania. I'll go with the first suggestion.

Cyli
r.bc: vixen. Minnow goddess. Speaker to squirrels.
Often taunted by trout. Almost entirely harmless.

http://www.visi.com/~cyli
email: (strip the .invalid to email)

[Scott Seidman]

Cyli > wrote in
:

> But there are sometimes reasons. You can't overbuild everything for
> worst case scenario or you might not be able to afford to build much
> else.


There's also "a stitch in time saves nine". If 10 billion dollars spent
out over 10 years would have girded up the levee system for a big class
4, would it have been worth it? I don't know how much of the 20 billion
and growing damage assessment is for New Orleans, but now, they'll likely
fix up the damage, and then go deal with the levee system. If they had
dealt with the system ten years ago, hundreds of thousands of lives would
be less interrupted than they are right now.

I don't think I'm conveying the "disaster waiting to happen" attitude of
the author of the article I read. The country was rolling some long dice
on the chance that a hurricane bigger than a 3 would never hit New
Orleans. We lost.

> It's Louisania. I'll go with the first suggestion.

The Army Corp built the system. The Feds will be largely picking up the
tab through FEMA. It's hard to place responsibility, but if I knew it
was my bank account that was going to be hit, I'd try real hard to make
sure the accident doesn't happen. Somewhere, somehow, the feds need to
be looking for these disasters in the making, doing the risk analysis,
and making sure we're as ready as we can be. I'd rather see this
happening than have a whole bureaucracy making sure that I can't clip my
toenails in flight. Our institutional priorities are misplaced.



--
Scott
Reverse name to reply

[John Hightower]

"Scott Seidman"
.. It's hard to place responsibility, but if I knew it
> was my bank account that was going to be hit, I'd try real hard to make
> sure the accident doesn't happen. Somewhere, somehow, the feds need to
> be looking for these disasters in the making, doing the risk analysis,
> and making sure we're as ready as we can be. I'd rather see this
> happening than have a whole bureaucracy making sure that I can't clip my
> toenails in flight. Our institutional priorities are misplaced.
>
>
I think there is pretty much an evolution occurring in terms of this kind of
thinking. When I was taking structural engineering classes in the late 70's
the design philosophy was pretty much along the lines of design things with
enough flexibility and strength so in the event of a disaster people can get
out before the damn thing falls down, breaks, whatever. In that respect the
WTC did pretty good- if they'd have been evacuated instead of re-occupied
the fatalities would have been limited to primarily those in the immediate
vicinity of the impacts (still a tragedy to be sure). Now, maybe because of
the current legal and insurance systems, more and more the design philosophy
is to minimize damage of any kind when faced with worst case scenarios. The
superdome did fine for the first case, not worth a **** for the latter.

jh

[Frank Reid]

> It's hard to imagine a
> more ridiculous place for a city...other than in the desert, I
> suppose ;-)

Well, you could put one next to a major volcano (Seattle, Tacoma), on top of
a major earthquake fault (San Francisco), in easy reach of a tsunami-causing
fault (Seattle, Tacoma, Portland (the Cascadia Fault)), in a zone at risk
from a tsunami from land deformation (Boston to Miami), next to a saline
cesspool (Salt Lake City) or just infect it with CJD (Washington DC).

--
Frank Reid
Euthanize to respond

[Ken Fortenberry]

Jonathan Cook wrote:
> Scott Seidman > wrote:
>>The country was rolling some long dice
>>on the chance that a hurricane bigger than a 3 would never hit New
>>Orleans. We lost.
>
> No, we won this one.

Don't do the victory dance just yet. What looked like
a bullet dodged this morning doesn't look the same this
afternoon. The Lake Pontchartrain levee is breached and
the water in New Orleans is rising. The worst case scenario
is unfolding, just a day late and in slow motion.

--
Ken Fortenberry

[Scott Seidman]

(Jonathan Cook) wrote in news:df25a2$kvl$1
@bubba.nmsu.edu:

> No, we won this one.

You've got a funny definition of "won"
>
> I see how I'm including in paying the bill, but I don't really
> feel like _I'm_ rolling the dice (as part of "the country"),

Isn't the money enough? FEMA will pay out a ton, not to mention lost tax
revenues from one of the biggest convention centers in the country and a
slew of casinos and hotels. Now, we'll spend the money that could have
beefed up the pumps and levees on reconstruction, and there will be
thousands of tragic stories to go along with it.

To top it off, the world market for decent beignets will go absolutely
crazy for months.

> but
> the residents of the city sure are. It's hard to imagine a
> more ridiculous place for a city...other than in the desert, I
> suppose ;-)
>
> Jon.
>
>

I don't know-- the mouth of one of the most important rivers of the
country seems to be a place for a community to sprout up. FWIW, the
redirection of the Miss has created or worsened a good deal of the
hazards associated with storm surges-- it wiped out sedimentation areas
and barrier islands. Laughingly, there have been some plans proposed,
similar to the Everglades project, to undo some of this damage.
Laughably, Army Corp funds for the area have had some major recent cuts.


--
Scott
Reverse name to reply

[Wolfgang]

"Jonathan Cook" > wrote in message
...
> Scott Seidman > wrote:
>
>> You've got a funny definition of "won"
>
> In my defense, I wrote that before I heard any news today (of the
> flooding), but I still contend it's much better than if the eye of
> a category 5 storm had hit N.O. directly. It could have been _much_
> worse.
>
> Jon.

Well, that's one of those perspective thingies. For those whose loved ones
will be identified at the morgue (if at all) it probably couldn't be a great
deal worse. On the other hand, next time it WILL be worse.

Wolfgang
what george said about the messenger.

[Wayne Knight]

"Jonathan Cook" > wrote in message
...
> Scott Seidman > wrote:
>
>> You've got a funny definition of "won"
>
> In my defense, I wrote that before I heard any news today (of the
> flooding), but I still contend it's much better than if the eye of
> a category 5 storm had hit N.O. directly. It could have been _much_
> worse.

Stick to computer science, mules, and your desert Jon. You don't know crap
about hurricanes cat 5 or otherwise and what could have been worse or what
wouldn't have been. Nor do you obiviously know the Gulf Coast, and really
don't have a ****ing clue what people on the gulf coast have gone through,
are going through, and will go through. Nor do you have any thought process
on what trying to get good information in and out of the area is like much
less basic povisions.

And if you paid attention you would have known that damn levee was breeched
yesterday.

Wayne

[Ken Fortenberry]

Scott Seidman wrote:
> (Jonathan Cook) wrote:
>>... It's hard to imagine a
>>more ridiculous place for a city...other than in the desert, I
>>suppose ;-)
>
>
> I don't know-- the mouth of one of the most important rivers of the
> country seems to be a place for a community to sprout up. ...

Peirce Lewis called New Orleans the "inevitable city
on an impossible site."

--
Ken Fortenberry

[Sarge]

"Wayne Knight" wrote: "Well most of the city is below sea level, protected
only by a series of dikes and pump drainage systems which they say can be
breached easily in a large hurricane. Add to it the destruction of the delta
over the past few decades and you have a recipe for large problems."

Louisiana politicians have been asking for money for years to shore up our
coastline and rebuild our barrier islands. These islands helped protect the
tidal surge from making it all the way in to the city.

The Corp of Engineers has help create this problem by building the levees to
hold back the annual flood waters of the Mississippi River and other
projects like the Mississippi River Gulf Outlet.

Every time the politicians from Louisiana asked for the money the
politicians from other states refused to go along with it. At present the
entire oil supply and production coming into the Gulf of Mexico is shutdown.
8 refineries are shutdown and can only start up when the waters recede,
power is restored and enough employees return to work to man the jobs. Many
of the employees of the refineries lived in the New Orleans metro area and
had their homes destroyed. I just returned to my residence tonight after
leaving town Sunday. I have minor damage and I live 25 miles West of New
Orleans.

I was told to report back to work Monday but only if my family and home are
secured and safe. My employer post a message on the hotline for work
stating all employees affected by the Hurricane will be paid throughout the
ordeal. This could last up to a month or two for some employees.

Sarge

[Wayne Knight]

"Sarge" > wrote in message
...
> I just returned to my residence tonight after
> leaving town Sunday. I have minor damage and I live 25 miles West of New
> Orleans.

I'm glad you escaped with minor damage and family is safe.

I hate seeing what has become of my home state, but I know it was only a
matter of time before somthing like this occurred. Most of my family is in
Houma and Lake Charles but had some in NO and they are safe.

Good luck and let us know if you need anything.

Wayne

[B J Conner]

They could take the 900 million for the Gravina Island Bridge in Alaska and
build a a mile or so of levees. Most of the people hurting in NO are black
and either don't vote or vote Democratic. If they had all voted for bush
and elected a congressman who drank the coolaid New Orleans would look like
Holland. You could buy all 50 of the people on Gravina Island their own
Higgins boat ( made in New Orleans ) and still have 800 million left over
for building a levee.
Global warming and a risiing sea level is a reallity. We will either build
levees or move inland as the wate rises.


"Sarge" > wrote in message
...
> "Wayne Knight" wrote: "Well most of the city is below sea level, protected
> only by a series of dikes and pump drainage systems which they say can be
> breached easily in a large hurricane. Add to it the destruction of the
delta
> over the past few decades and you have a recipe for large problems."
>
> Louisiana politicians have been asking for money for years to shore up our
> coastline and rebuild our barrier islands. These islands helped protect
the
> tidal surge from making it all the way in to the city.
>
> The Corp of Engineers has help create this problem by building the levees
to
> hold back the annual flood waters of the Mississippi River and other
> projects like the Mississippi River Gulf Outlet.
>
> Every time the politicians from Louisiana asked for the money the
> politicians from other states refused to go along with it. At present the
> entire oil supply and production coming into the Gulf of Mexico is
shutdown.
> 8 refineries are shutdown and can only start up when the waters recede,
> power is restored and enough employees return to work to man the jobs.
Many
> of the employees of the refineries lived in the New Orleans metro area and
> had their homes destroyed. I just returned to my residence tonight after
> leaving town Sunday. I have minor damage and I live 25 miles West of New
> Orleans.
>
> I was told to report back to work Monday but only if my family and home
are
> secured and safe. My employer post a message on the hotline for work
> stating all employees affected by the Hurricane will be paid throughout
the
> ordeal. This could last up to a month or two for some employees.
>
> Sarge
>
>
>
>
>

[Wolfgang]

"B J Conner" > wrote in message
news:FejSe.12668$B34.3220@trnddc09...
> ...Global warming and a risiing sea level is a reallity. We will either
> build
> levees or move inland as the wate rises.

It'll be both. But the latter won't happen until the former fail at least
once more.....maybe two or three times......depends on how long it takes to
kill a LOT of people.

Wolfgang

[Wayne Knight]

"B J Conner" > wrote in message
news:FejSe.12668$B34.3220@trnddc09...

> They could take the 900 million for the Gravina Island Bridge in Alaska

How can we overcome the right when the left can't get it right either? The
appropriation as reported by one of the news services the other day was 210
million or so.

[Tim J.]

Wayne Knight wrote:
> "B J Conner" > wrote in message
> news:FejSe.12668$B34.3220@trnddc09...
>
>> They could take the 900 million for the Gravina Island Bridge in
>> Alaska
>
> How can we overcome the right . . .

You misspelled "come over to". ;-)

The middle-right and middle-left aren't that far apart. We can find much
on which to agree. At very least, we can work together in times of need.
And fish together, if we must. . .
--
TL,
Tim
---------------------------
http://css.sbcma.com/timj/