What's a boy to do?
 

"rb608" wrote in message
ups.com...
Wolfgang wrote:
To be sure, {BG} LOOKS different than {GB}but
except with regard to the relative positions of the labels for {B}oy and
{G}irl they are identical entities. Why does one entity get counted as
two
possibilities?

That's what bothers me as well. To be sure, the mathematics is correct
as modeled, but I think this debate arises from attempting to word a
precise, non-mathematical, real-world question to fit a desired
abstract (and, I would argue, a deliberatlely oblique) answer. I don't
care how many kids the guy has, the chances of any one of them being a
B or G is still the same as a coin flip (genetics notwithstanding).

It's clear to me that Dr. Math & Myron are both correct in their
analysis of the mathematics; but I take issue that the question as
asked accurately describes the model subsequently analyzed.

Joe F.

Exactly......though I'd phrase it a bit differently, I think. The answer is
correct. The trouble is that it is the correct answer to the wrong
question. :)

One doesn't need to know much about mathematics to recognize a logical error
or fallacy. There is unquestionably a positional element in the answer that
is absent from the problem as stated.

Wolfgang

What's a boy to do?
 

wrote in message
...
On Fri, 3 Nov 2006 09:19:28 -0600, "Wolfgang" wrote:


O.k., let's pretend (just for the moment) that you could find your way to
the real world for a brief visit. How would you propose that your little
bet be settled?

Since you've asked so nicely, it's only gonna cost you a little bit to
find out and you won't lose much. Here's the deal, one-time offer, not
negotiable. You agree to send a check for $25USD to St. Jude's.

O.k.

Don't like St. Jude's? Tough ****. My offer, my choice.

I have no problem at with St. Jude's......hell, I don't even know who St.
Jude's is.

If you agree,

And I do.

then I'll outline the rest,

O.k., I'll be waiting for the outline.

with the wager being that if you can't prove me
wrong, you send a check for $100USD (total) to St. Jude's and if you can
prove me wrong, you get whatever satisfaction you might get.

Sounds good to me.

Don't like any of the above?

Loving every bit of it.

Again, tough ****, etc.

You sound angry. Was it something I said?

Are you in or out?

I'm in.

Wolfgang
and the check is in the mail....and.....um.....oh yeah, i won't come in your
mouth.

What's a boy to do?
 

In article , says...
And that answer is fine, to the problem "I am about to throw
three darts".

Again, if you have already thrown two darts, and want to know
how likely the third dart is to land inside the first, the
_only_ way to estimate this is to know where the first dart
is _and_ the probability density function of the thrower
(i.e., their skill level).


No, it doesn't matter whether you have already thrown them or not.
Consider the questions "I am about to flip a coin. What is the
probability that the outcome is heads?" and "I have already flipped a
coin. Without looking, what is the probability that the outcome is
heads?"

We don't need to know the location of the first dart - we just sum
the probabilities over all possible values for the location of the first
dart. Now, if we DID know the location of the first dart, it would
certainly change the answer -- as it would if I omitted the words
"without looking" from the second question above.

Kevin

--
reply to: kevin dot vang at minotstateu dot edu

What's a boy to do?
 

On Fri, 3 Nov 2006 14:10:14 -0600, "Wolfgang" wrote:


wrote in message
.. .
On Fri, 3 Nov 2006 09:19:28 -0600, "Wolfgang" wrote:


O.k., let's pretend (just for the moment) that you could find your way to
the real world for a brief visit. How would you propose that your little
bet be settled?

Since you've asked so nicely, it's only gonna cost you a little bit to
find out and you won't lose much. Here's the deal, one-time offer, not
negotiable. You agree to send a check for $25USD to St. Jude's.

O.k.

Don't like St. Jude's? Tough ****. My offer, my choice.

I have no problem at with St. Jude's......hell, I don't even know who St.
Jude's is.

If you agree,

And I do.

then I'll outline the rest,

O.k., I'll be waiting for the outline.

Simple. Here is what you proposed:

"Give me three darts and a prediction of where they will land
relative to one another in terms of distance from the center of the
target, and I will prove you wrong EVERY time."

I hereby give to you three darts. Anytime you wish to collect them, let
me know.

Here's my prediction:

One dart will land at or specific distance from the center of the target
(COT) with no darts closer in distance to the COT. Another dart will
land a distance equal to or greater than the distance of one dart from
the COT, and equal to or less than the distance of one dart from the
COT, and another dart will land a distance equal to or greater than two
of the darts from the COT.

If the "dartboard" is of the type that can never have two darts
_exactly_ the same distance from the COT, one dart will land at or a
specific distance from the COT with no darts closer in distance to the
COT, another dart will land a distance greater from the COT than one
dart but less than another dart, and another dart will land a distance
greater than two of the darts from the COT.

If necessary, I'm sure someone can whip out the x's and y's and Greek
letters and symbols and all sorts of really boring stuff to be all
planar triangulation and um, "gee...pee...essence" and stuff, but I'm
not particularly interested in doing so...

FWIW, I just made three imaginary throws (I imagined that I used your
darts - they were handy - hope you don't mind) and they imaginarily
landed as follows:

17 fat, 8 small pie, 5 double-ring

Your turn to prove my prediction "wrong EVERY time."

And by the way, http://www.stjude.org/donate

R
....heck, I could have predicted _anything_, and you would have a rather
hard time proving it wrong "EVERY" time...

What's a boy to do?
 

wrote:


"Give me three darts and a prediction of where they will land
relative to one another in terms of distance from the center of the
target, and I will prove you wrong EVERY time."

I hereby give to you three darts.

Where? I don't see 'em.

Anytime you wish to collect them, let
me know.

Ah! Tricksy little hobbit! Say, I'll bet sixteen thousand gazillion
dollars that you're a near graduate of the southern Mississippi school
of law and numbers and stuff.

Here's my prediction:

One dart will land at or specific distance from the center of the target
(COT) with no darts closer in distance to the COT. Another dart will
land a distance equal to or greater than the distance of one dart from
the COT, and equal to or less than the distance of one dart from the
COT, and another dart will land a distance equal to or greater than two
of the darts from the COT.

If the "dartboard" is of the type that can never have two darts
_exactly_ the same distance from the COT, one dart will land at or a
specific distance from the COT with no darts closer in distance to the
COT, another dart will land a distance greater from the COT than one
dart but less than another dart, and another dart will land a distance
greater than two of the darts from the COT.

If necessary, I'm sure someone can whip out the x's and y's and Greek
letters and symbols and all sorts of really boring stuff to be all
planar triangulation and um, "gee...pee...essence" and stuff, but I'm
not particularly interested in doing so...

FWIW, I just made three imaginary throws (I imagined that I used your
darts - they were handy - hope you don't mind) and they imaginarily
landed as follows:

17 fat, 8 small pie, 5 double-ring

Your turn to prove my prediction "wrong EVERY time."

Well all that is.....um.....hm......what's the word I'm looking for
here.....mmmmm.....oh yeah, dull. Looks like sementics is a bit more
than you can swallow all at one sitting.

And by the way, http://www.stjude.org/donate

What's a stjude?

R
...heck, I could have predicted _anything_, and you would have a rather
hard time proving it wrong "EVERY" time...

You remind me a lot of some of the other boys here. Has anyone ever
told you that if you pick up everything you can't identify and put it
in your mouth you WILL eventually regret it? :)

Anyway, just this once, try to tell us the truth.
You're.....what?.....ten?.....maybe eleven years old? And dad lets you
play on the computer in his secretary's office all day long(much to
his/her disgust) because even the PUBLIC school teachers have said
you're to big to be kept in a cage and besides the children tease you
unmercifully (understandable, one must admit) and you just screech all
the livelong day......right? :)

Wolfgang
jeezus.....it really IS dumber than kennie, kennie and stevie combined!

What's a boy to do?
 

riverman wrote:
"Wolfgang" wrote in message
...

You should direct some of your less gifted students to leave the classroom
and come here. This will have the salutary effect of raising the IQ in
both places. :)

Unfortunately, by your logic, they can't get here either. :-(

No problem. We can meet them half way. :)

--riverman
(and exactly where they ARE has historically been the source of lively
teacher's room discussions for an eternity, or more.)

Tell the teachers that the answer to this mystery must remain forever
beyond their grasp. Where those students ARE is where IT'S AT.

Wolfgang

What's a boy to do?
 

"Wolfgang" wrote in message
Well all that is.....um.....hm......what's the word I'm looking for
here.....mmmmm.....oh yeah, dull.

No; the word you were looking for is "lame".

HTH,
Joe F.

What's a boy to do?
 

Ken Fortenberry wrote:
Scott Seidman wrote:
...
You could ask your question in a different way, to get the answer you
want, which is "you are going to throw three darts at a target. What is
the probability that the third dart will miss by more than the first
dart?" This is a VERY different question, but the answer is the one you
are describing.

Exactly correct. Good luck trying to convince the roffian gaggle. ;-)

Don'tcha just love those "this is a great opportunity to say something
seemingly cryptic that NO****in'body will understand or challenge"
moments? :)

Wolfgang

What's a boy to do?
 

rb608 wrote:
"Wolfgang" wrote in message
Well all that is.....um.....hm......what's the word I'm looking for
here.....mmmmm.....oh yeah, dull.

No; the word you were looking for is "lame".

Hm.......yeah, that WAS it.

HTH,

It does.

Thank you. :)

Wolfgang

What's a boy to do?
 

"Wolfgang" wrote in message
oups.com...

Ken Fortenberry wrote:
Scott Seidman wrote:
...
You could ask your question in a different way, to get the answer you
want, which is "you are going to throw three darts at a target. What
is
the probability that the third dart will miss by more than the first
dart?" This is a VERY different question, but the answer is the one
you
are describing.

Exactly correct. Good luck trying to convince the roffian gaggle. ;-)

Don'tcha just love those "this is a great opportunity to say something
seemingly cryptic that NO****in'body will understand or challenge"
moments? :)


Oh, absolutely. It happens all the time, won't they?

--riverman