FishingBanter - View Single Post

Kevin Vang · March 23rd, 2006, 06:29 AM posted to rec.outdoors.fishing.fly

In article ,
says...
On Wed, 22 Mar 2006 22:55:46 -0600, Kevin Vang wrote:
Math problem: Let p1 = the probability that there might be a ticking
time bomb somewhere. Let p2 = probability that the prisoner in custody
has information about the bomb. Let p3 = the probability that we could
get accurate information from the prisoner about the bomb. Let
p4 = the probability that we could get and use the information in time,
and let n = the expected number of lives that could be saved.

What are the minimum values of p1, p2, p3, p4, and n which would
justify the use of torture?

All depending on how you define "we", whenever p2 is 100%, p3 is also 100%.

You think so? I mean seriously, do you really think so?

Also depending on how you define "we," if p1 is anything above zero and n equals
1 or more, especially if "n" is or consists of your wife, kid(s), mother,
father, friend(s), or anyone else you care about, I'd suspect that you would
hope p4 would be 100%, but would take anything above zero given no other
options...

Perhaps. On the other hand, if myself or one of my loved ones were the
suspect being held underwater, my feelings on the matter might be
different.

The problem is that p2 is almost always a completely unknown variable and p3
decreases exponentially with regard to a decrease in p2...calculating p3 is
easy, but you MUST know p2, and it's almost always incalculable.

That is a problem, isn't it?

Kevin