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Old October 27th, 2006, 11:40 PM posted to rec.outdoors.fishing.fly
Wolfgang
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Default What's a boy to do?


Scott Seidman wrote:
"Wolfgang" wrote in :


The question.......what should you do?

Wolfgang



If I recall correctly, you should change your mind. When you chose the
first, you had a 1/3 chance of being right, and nothing has changed that.
If you change your mind now, that gives you a 2/3 chance of being correct.
I'm pretty sure I'm dead wrong on that 2/3 number, though, but the chance
is more than 0.5.


Actually, I believe your exactly right about the 2/3.

Um.....well, it's been a couple hours since I last looked at the
solution, so I could be wrong.

The key is that the removal process is not random.


Yep.

Wolfgang