"Wolfgang" wrote in message
ups.com...
Actually, I believe your exactly right about the 2/3.

Um.....well, it's been a couple hours since I last looked at the
solution, so I could be wrong.

The key is that the removal process is not random.

Yep.

Wolfgang

Yes, the key from a pure mathematical probability standpoint is that the
removal process is not random. However, from a human nature standpoint the
fact that the removal is not random could also dictate in some circumstances
that I should not switch.
If the rules are that you must always reveal one of the losers, then the MH
problem solution dictates that it is in my interest to switch. However such
a rule was not stated in the question you posed. If I suspect that you are
aware that I most likely am familiar with the MH problem solution, and if I
also think that you think that I am unaware that you have that knowledge
then, if you reveal one of the losers, it is probably not in my interest to
switch (geez what a tortured sentence). Conversely, with those respective
mindsets, if you choose not to reveal one of the losers I probably should
switch. Of course after playing a few times in the absence of a rule to
always reveal one of the losers, the activity would quickly go to each of us
trying to second guess the other.

Bob Weinberger