jeffc wrote:
"Wolfgang" wrote in message
...

The question.......what should you do?

The easiest way to convince yourself of the correct answer (since it's
non-intuitive) is to play the game with someone. After a short while,
you'll realize that the only way you can get it right if you don't switch is
if you picked it right from the beginning - in other words, 1 chance in 3.

Sure, first they take all yer shiny new nickels.......

Hey, I've only got just so many five dollar bills, ya know!

Anyway, that's right.....so long as we stress the "convince" part, as
opposed to learn. Unless and until you become familiar with the
correct solution to the Monty Hall problem (whether it's explained to
you or you work the logic out for yourself) intuition can lead you down
a long and, if it's presented as a betting game, ruinous road.

Wolfgang
who wouldn't bet any of his few remaining shiny new nickels on the
prospect of selling these revolutionary analyses to the folks who run
vegas.