When you chose the first, you had a 1/3 chance of being right, and nothing has changed that.

Scott, I assume you know what a Tontine is. Suppose you and two
friends form one. Overlooking health and age differences and the fact
that one smokes and drinks heavily, each of you has one chance in
three of winning.

Later, one of the others dies. Now, what is your chance of winning?

vince

Depends somewhat on your and their morality. There's a reason
tontines were outlawed...

Yeah, but I was presenting it as a question involving probabilities,
not morality. (Or did you accidently omit the "t" from "mortality"?

vince