What's a boy to do?
wrote in message
Not as I see. As I see it, those supporting 50-50 odds aren't looking
at the situation properly.
For example, if a third person walks up at the point
after the first board is turned over and is offered a chance to get in
on things by picking one of the two remaining boards, their odds are
50-50, but they had different "rules" (this "each "hand's" _rules_ are
different" is why blackjack ain't a heads-up game).
As one who understands the mathematics, but still has difficulty
rationalizing the counter-intuitive nature of the answer, I think this
somewhat illuminates the crux. If the question is, "What is the probability
of selecting the correct answer from two remaining random choices?", the
answer is 1/2. That is the simplest and most understandable question.
Everybody gets it. But that's not the actual question posed by the problem,
nor are the choices random. The question posed is, "What is the probablity
of selecting the correct answer through this process?" The correct answer
to that is 2/3.
Joe F.
|