On Mon, 21 Apr 2008 22:10:01 GMT, "Tom Littleton"
wrote:


wrote in message
.. .
The situation as it stands today indicates there will be no "stomping"
by or of anyone. It'll likely be much like 8 years ago, damned near
50-50. I wouldn't be surprised at a real squeaker.

what gives you this impression? IMO, the country is less divided along a
50/50 fault line than it was then.


And I'm sure
Hillary and Screamin' Howie have whole packs of lawyers warming up their
BS. Can you paint any halfway reasonable picture in which whatever
combination of Dems vs. McCain would produce anything much different?

Obama will kick McCain three ways to Sunday.

If the election were next week, no way, no how. Which is not to say
McCain would kick his tail, either. But there's too much time for
shtick betwixt now and November to predict what _will_ happen then. And
I think Obama has more to lose in meantime because he is still
kinda-sorta the media darling golden boy now...hey, Hillary was all but
the nominee last year...

By US standards, he may indeed win by a subtantial margin.

And he may up and decide he no longer wants to be Prez and calls for
folks to write in Paris Hilton for the job...and of course, there's the
whole "US standards" thing...lately, that's been trying to figure out
who 6 goobers in Possum Anus, FL REALLY wanted to vote for and fighting
over the dangling dingleberries it in court. And remember, he the
delegates he has because Hillary's hubris gave them to him - literally -
in the caucuses...and it's not the first time some would-be dictator,
um, caught a cold ****ing around in the, um, "Cauc(a)s(e)s"

He puts states in play for the Dems that haven't
been so for a while.

I'm not so sure how much, and he will likely lose some play that a more
solid-appearing Dem with some real chops might get - Richardson, for
example. Plus the whole race and religion (both the real, ala Wright,
and the horse****, ala Islam) thing is too wild a card to speculate
upon. The Wright thing has hurt him and the "elitist" thing all the
more so, but... If he does much of anything that portrays himself - or
really, confirms what some suspect and I suspect the Rovettes will be
helping along - as some elitist liberal intellectual atheist, he's done.
Also, I'm sure some people say they would vote for him because they are
afraid to say they wouldn't and appear racist, when they wouldn't
actually vote for him if he were white, blue, or chartreuse, but I don't
think anyone really has a good handle on those numbers. Bottom line -
IMO, it's too early to make hard-and-fast calls, but given the facts as
of 4PM eastern, no one is gonna stomp anyone

I'll bet you a cold one(or three), publicly, now, that
Obama can beat McCain by 60 electoral votes.

I'm sure you would...you appreciate sucker bets as much as I do...and
don't appreciate being the sucker any more than I do...

Would you bet me $100,000.00USD, publicly, now, that a ticket consisting
of Ron Paul and Dennis Kucinich can beat any other ticket you can
imagine by every single electoral vote?

I mean, they can...they won't, but they _can_...which, of course, leads
to a debate about what "can" means...

IAC, I've no problem with the idea that, being reasonable, Obama might
win by 60 electoral votes over McCain...but McCain, at this moment, is
just as likely to do the same over Obama. I've been speaking more of
the popular vote, which really doesn't elect the Pres or Veep, but it
what most look to. Assuming all electors stay faithful, I'd say the
actual vote (electors) would mirror the popular, so assuming Obama and a
reasonable veep, like Richardson vs. McCain-so-so veep, it's about a
toss-up, with a _slight_ edge to McCain. If it's Obama-Clinton vs.
McCain-Lieberman, it'll be President McCain.

Tom
p.s. forget about Hillary, she is dead, and her campaign staff shows the
signs of knowing it, the past few days here
in PA.

I don't know about that. And that's another thing Obama has to face -
he's spending, what, 12 mil in Penn alone - that ain't change, brother.
I'd offer as a possible that both have slammed a little too much dick to
be second fiddle, but neither really has a clear choice as running mate.
To make matters worse, one choosing the other might be seen as the best
hope (ala Billy's little "unstoppable force" shtick) but also the
biggest risk. Frankly, I think the Clintonistas and pseudoDems have
once again put the Democratic Party into a real mess, and 2008 might not
be the year they get out of it.

TC,
R