wrote in message
...
If the election were next week, no way, no how.

However, it isn't....hence, my wager. This campaign runs for a while, which,
I think you will find, will play to Obama's favor. Mostly, for reasons no
specific to him, but which he will be able to articulate, regarding McCain's
ideas for moving the nation ahead.

I'm not so sure how much, and he will likely lose some play that a more
solid-appearing Dem with some real chops might get - Richardson, for
example.

I like Bill Richardson, too, but let's face it. He has the charisma of
oatmeal.

Plus the whole race and religion (both the real, ala Wright,
and the horse****, ala Islam) thing is too wild a card to speculate
upon. The Wright thing has hurt him and the "elitist" thing all the
more so

really? The poll numbers, plus casual conversation here in East Central PA
say otherwise. Most real folks know the smell of bull****, and seemingly,
are less tolerant of it this season. What 'pundits' opine, and columnists
write, seems to convey less momentum to a campaign than it once did.
Strange phenomenon: we live within a world where 'everything' becomes
newsworthy, yet, most folks filter out more and more of it.


Would you bet me $100,000.00USD, publicly, now, that a ticket consisting
of Ron Paul and Dennis Kucinich can beat any other ticket you can
imagine by every single electoral vote?

I'd wager that much that the pairing in question might have trouble beating
a traffic ticket.....and, yes, I see where your suspicions lie in my
original wording. Let me restate it(at the lower buy-in level of a couple
brews): Obama WILL beat John McCain by 60 electoral votes in the 2008
election. Sorry to infer an attempt at a dubious bet.

I don't know about that. And that's another thing Obama has to face -

he'll deal with your not knowing alright, I figureg.

he's spending, what, 12 mil in Penn alone - that ain't change, brother.

he's picking up 40 mil a month in contributions, largely small sums from
people he can return to for more, if/when he needs it.

I'd offer as a possible that both have slammed a little too much dick to
be second fiddle, but neither really has a clear choice as running mate.
To make matters worse, one choosing the other might be seen as the best
hope (ala Billy's little "unstoppable force" shtick) but also the
biggest risk.

this part, I generally will agree with. Not with the explaination which you
gave about the party, however. The Dems will be just fine. Only if the
primary ugliness runs into the actual convention, will they have a problem.
It won't. Obama will be the nominee-apparent within 45 days, I will guess.
After that, the party love-fest will heal most of the wounds, the Clintons
will fade to elder-statesmen/ Teddy Kennedy type past-tense status, and,
with hope, Obama picks a running mate slightly less controversial than
William Ayers. Lieberman can, and will, get painted with the same pro-war,
pro-Israel brush as McCain, maybe in worse fashion, and that pairing would
lose out of just sheer fear of the consequences of them in charge. It would,
however, temper McCain a bit to have Joe out on the trail with him to
whisper corrections in his ear, and calm down the temper tantrums. He has
that job down pretty damned well!

Tom