On 20 Aug 2008 16:41:41 GMT, Scott Seidman
wrote:

wrote in
:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...ama_vs_mccain/

http://electoral-vote.com/evp2008/Pr...raph-2008.html

Check out the graphs of "safe" votes, though. The drop in overall numbers
certainly is a bit disconcerting, but Obama hasn't been campaigning hard
for at least two weeks.

He could "campaign hard" 24/7 and it won't change the numbers
dramatically (positive or negative), same for McCain. This thing has
about 10(ish) points of spread and I wouldn't be surprised to see MUCH
closer state races than many predict if the election were tomorrow - I
could see all states except Arizona being no further than 56-44 or even
54-46, either way. What hurt him _badly_ (in relative context) was
Saddleback - he looked like a Clintonesque, finger-in-the-wind pol and
McCain looked about as straightforward and honest as pols can. I'd say
he lost somewhere in the neighborhood of 2-3 points permanently, and
took a real ding in his play for the highly-religious types whereas
McCain soothed a lot of Christian conservative nervousness (most would
have likely broken for him behind the curtain, anyway, but if they come
forward now, it'll give him a little overall boost).

Plus, it appears the best the Dems can do is attempt to subjectively
(and incorrectly) associate McCain - "he's just the 3rd Bush term..."
whereas the GOP can label Obama (and Hillary) - "he _is_ too liberal, he
_is_ too inexperienced, she _is_ Hillary Clinton...

TC,
R