"Scott Seidman" wrote in message
. 1.4...
MajorOz wrote in
:

On Sep 26, 9:41 am, "Tom Littleton" wrote:
wrote in message

...
I have nothing that I

can post to prove it, but it is an interesting perspective...

R

well, yes and no. This whole tack is starting to sound like whistling
pas
t
the graveyard. Oh, and two interesting poll-
related items:
PA poll of the 'Alabama' part of the state(ie: not Pittsburgh or
Philadelphia) showed McCain statistically tied with Obama. If that
holds
up,
put Obama FIRMLY in control of 23 electoral votes
Second--Pew Trust study of polling methodologies shows a 5%
undercount estimate of Obama support, due to virtually all polls
incapable of hittin
g
cell-phone only users, who have no landline to identify.
Every bit as interesting as speculation on who wants what out of
Obama in Congress. And, with real numbers to back it up.

Tom
Obama by 48 electoral votes, at least.

As most current guesses are just that -- guesses, here is mine:

McCain by 20-40 electoral votes, but popular vote a toss-up, with
plurality either way.

cheers

oz


If McCain loses the popular vote, he loses.

fivethirtyeight.com gives McCain a 2.5% chance of winning given a popular
vote loss

The winners: ExxonMobil, Disney, Microsoft, Chase Manhattan, India, China,
etc., by a landslide.

The losers: Not me.

Wolfgang
who remains childless and loves betting on a can't possibly lose
proposition.