http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...obama-225.html

Early last week McCain found himself two points down in the polls
(although there are suggestions that his internal polling showed much
worse results). His lead in Florida was gone. Palin's appeal with
women had faded from a 13 point lead with white women back to a tie
(Bush, coincidentally, won with 13% of the Caucasian female vote in
2004). So he tried a gambit. "Suspending" his campaign, threatening to
cancel the first debate and going to Washington to become enmeshed in
the negotiations over the administration's bailout initiative. In the
end though, the suspension never took place in reality (he kept making
speeches, running ads, raising money), the trip to Washington was a
disaster causing the bi-partisan negotiations to dissolve into
partisan rancor (exactly as Obama had warned would happen if either
one got involved in the deal) and the debate went on (which McCain
proceeded to lose). Hence the links above.

His only hope to regain his footing is for Palin to do very well in
her debate Thursday. Expectations for her are lower than for any VP
candidate in the history of the debates. If she can come out and
string two coherent sentences together people will say that she had a
good night. And frankly, she isn't as stupid as she appeared on her
two national interviews, so I expect she will look better after the
debate than before. Like Obama in the foreign policy debate, if she
can attain a tie (with the presumed master of the subject, Biden) she
will be considered the victor. If she could win, then the entire race
could be changed. But if she just looks "not as dumb" as she appears
now, will that be enough to make people think she is qualified to be
President. Because when people see McCain's skin grafted face on TV,
you know that the possibility of her ascending to the White House is
real.

http://img.photobucket.com/albums/v2...300x218jpg.png

But this isn't about his frailty. Its about his judgment. There would
be few questions arising from his precarious health if he had picked a
Kay Bailey Hutchison or an Olympia Snowe. Or even a Rudy Guilliani or
Mike Huckabee. But in going with his gut, time after time, and having
his gut fail him, time after time, he reveals the part of him that
makes his Presidency, shortened by health or not, such a dangerous
gamble for the country. Missiles can't be called back after your gut
tells you to launch them. A family's son can't be called back to life
after your gut tells him to enter battle with an enemy on its own
ground. Simply put, McCain does not have the temperament to be
President of the United States of America.


hth

GeoC