On Sat, 11 Oct 2008 22:57:56 -0700 (PDT), "
wrote:

On Oct 11, 9:23*am, George Cleveland
wrote:
Ed Rollins seems to think so.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MSeOBqM5sMc

So does the Princeton Electoral Consortium

http://election.princeton.edu/todays...ote-histogram/

hth

GeoC

This could turn on a dime, all it would take is one Obama mistake.
And I would be very careful not to underestimate Palin (same thing
that I said about Bush before his first election): she is much, much
better out on the trail than she is being given credit for, and - I
suspect - she is getting better by the day, and could end up making a
significant difference in critical regions such as in Ohio and PA.

PA is in Obama's pocket now, with a 14% lead in the polls. I think
McCain is still campaigning there because it is the only big state
that he has a remote chance of picking up and the way his campaign
handled pulling out of MI hurt him badly. He can't do it again. He's
stuck their and it will siphon off money and time that he could be
spending more profitably elsewhere. Ohio is a "different matter", but
of course is a "no matter" if Obama wins Florida or Virginia.

Of course this could turn on a dime. 3 weeks is a couple of changes of
momentum in the usual election. But it could also turn in Obama's
direction just as easily. McCain and Palin are the desperate ones and
its obvious in their actions and words. Palins favorability rating is
the lowest of the four Pres./VP candidates and dropping. Undecideds
are breaking 2 to 1 against her. She obviously appeals to the
Republican base but with a base 5 to 10 percent smaller than the
Democrats thats not going to do it this election. According to the AP,
Democratic registration has grown 5% and Repiublican registrations are
down 2% from 2004.

I know that Democrats are a pessimistic bunch. But if the numbers hold
up for another week and a half, if Bambi is still up by 6 to 8 points
nationally, then they are going to have to start acting like the Party
of Destiny in order to siphon off those last few people who, whether
we like it or not, are attracted in the last few days to the candidate
with the mantle of "Winner".

Its important that Democrats not get complacent but rather take the
attitude that an absolute crushing of the Party of Bush is a first
step in exacting justice for the disaster of the last 8 years. With
more to come.

hth

GeoC