OT .... Thoughts on ..

I ran my own small biz for 30 years and usually had an employee or two, and
for the 10 years before that I was in middle management of a large company
and responsible for budget and staffing of my dept, about 10 peoples job's
were at stake. Those 40 years are my entire education in "economics," so
I certainly don't claim to be expert. But, I see things posted here that
seem to be little more than blindly repeated, politically inspired, bunk, so
my own contributions can't fall too far below the bar that has been set.


//////////////////////////////////

Thoughts on ..

1) "creating jobs"

Every one of the millions of jobs that have been lost recently was "created"
at some previous time. Creating is damn easy, I could create one this
morning by simply hiring a "ranch manager." Problem is, I'd have to lay
him off this afternoon because I ran out of funds to support that job.
The "creating" is, at best, worthless unless they can be sustained.

It's true that 'Money' creates jobs, but, in most cases, that does NOT mean
what people think. Job's created by true venture capitalists are, I'm
sure, a very small % of the total. And venture capital does damn little
to sustain those jobs, the ideas, products and people 'capitalized' have to
produce and sell or the jobs soon vanish.

The money that matters most is the money that inspires and sustains a job.

For a simplistic example, let's say I own a small sto The business at
that store gradually grows and I notice lines at the registers, looks of
frustration in the faces of my increasing clientele when help isn't
available quickly. THEIR money, that I hope they will spend in my store,
is my inspiration to add an employee .... AND it's the money that will keep
that new guy employed, hopefully for years. Any money of my own ( or
borrowed ) that I use to get a new cash register, etc. is only a very short
term investment ... 'money' true, but not the really important money. The
important money is the money the average customer is spending, over the long
term.

And that important money must be available in quantity greater than just
enough to pay the new guys salary. I am a business man and I must recover
that salary, the money I spent on the register and interest, and increase my
profits. Tending to the problems associated with employees simply isn't
worth having another one UNLESS he makes me more than he costs me ...
obviously. Most businesses, regardless of size, add employees slowly,
one at a time nearly ( obviously there are seasonal exceptions and very
rapidly growing market ones too ). It's generally better biz to be a tiny
bit short handed than overstaffed. Taking a short term windfall to
'create a new job" unless the prospects of the long term flow of Mr.
Average's money will sustain that job is BAD business ... taking "$300,000
to creat 30 jobs" without a market to support them is pure folly.

The 'money' that is going to make my theoretical new guy's job possible as a
practical matter isn't MY "rich guy creating jobs' money, it's Joe Average's
money he spends and puts into the economy, partly via my store. I have
customers from all levels of the economy, the wealthy ones are steady
shoppers buying about the same in good times and bad, but it's the "Joes"
that buy when they can, don't when they have to cut back, that make the new
guys job secure, or not.


/////////////

other thoughts may follow in other posts

Larry L wrote:
I ran my own small biz for 30 years and usually had an employee or two, and
for the 10 years before that I was in middle management of a large company
and responsible for budget and staffing of my dept, about 10 peoples job's
were at stake. Those 40 years are my entire education in "economics," so
I certainly don't claim to be expert. But, I see things posted here that
seem to be little more than blindly repeated, politically inspired, bunk, so
my own contributions can't fall too far below the bar that has been set.


//////////////////////////////////

Thoughts on ..

1) "creating jobs"
good thoughts snipped

Well, you'd have more useful experience if you had weathered the
Great Depression.

We are not in normal circumstances and we can't just create the
ideal, perfect, permanent jobs. We have to make work, create any
and every damn job we can. Just like FDR did way back when.

I don't think a lot of people realize the magnitude of the impending
disaster.

--
Ken Fortenberry

"Ken Fortenberry" wrote


I don't think a lot of people realize the magnitude of the impending
disaster.

////////////////////

Aside: I'd guess that the words "wealth" and "money" have precise meanings
to
economists that I may abuse here. I welcome learning on the subject and
will try to correct further comments if I do learn better usage. :EndAside

/////////////////////////////


Actually, Ken, I agree. Those that criticise "spending" beyond what it
seems "short term stimulus" requires are the ones that, I believe, need to
consider that 'creating" and "sustaining" are NOT the same word.
National security demands both.

I, personally, have the remainer of a small mortgage but zero debt beyond
that and I've never, ever, bought what I couldn't pay for very quickly by
our cultural standards. Therefore the amount of 'money' I have has gone
down a lot lately, but my 'wealth' is about the same ... i.e. I own roughly
the same percentage of the same home, the same other goods, the same % of
the same companies, via stocks, and those companies largely have the same
percentage of market share and the same real products etc. The value of
that wealth has changed ... as measured in $$$, for sure .... I was once
'fairly well off' in dollars, now I'm not, but actually I'm pretty much the
same, and dollar value, market wide, will follow real value, eventually.


Too many jobs, and lives, have been built on adman bubble. Many people
( it's a cultural failing, not a politically inspired thing, imho ) have
built a lifestyle based on debt and never really had any wealth.
Regardless of what they drove or lived in, they didn't own squat.

Our "economy" has been largely based on illusion and mirror tricks for some
time now. It must go back to being based on real things, real production,
real goods, real services, real products. Sadly, there is no where near
enough of said "reality" to support the massive consumptavitis people have
grown to expect, so some very real pain is coming soon. ( hell it's here, 2
out of the last 5 businesses I've tried to contact locally have gone BK )

One thing 'investment money' CAN do is attempt to create new 'real' wealth,
i.e. new products, new markets, better uses of raw materials so that those
materials grow in value, etc.

Much of what Obama proposes ( from what I hear from both sides ) aims to do
just that, but only the one side hears it that way. We desparately need
some new things besides paper deals and mirrors behind our ecomomy and I,
for one, think that spending on 'green biz', 'education', and public
infastructure make great sense as ways to get dollars flowing over a fairly
long term while Mr Average readjusts his personal economy to more match his
personal reality, not his bubble. And when things start to turn around
we'll have good things to show for it, new industries, better schooled
workers, and levees less likely to break in a storm ( saving money on
disasters, btw, wingnuts ;-).

I don't think that the next several decades will see as much blind
consumption as what we've seen the last few, and I believe that anyone that
thinks we 'should" see it is dead wrong. IMHO, 'stimulus" as a word
misses the point. Yes we must act quickly and stimulate, but as a nation
we need readjusted expectations ... and a less grossly painful way to get
there, than 'market forces' alone will allow.

One thing this country is facing, politically, is a, more or less silly,
harping on exact wordage ... i.e. "stimulus" as an example,

This leads me to believe that arguing is more important than even trying to
understand in some circles. Let me add that anyone, in THESE times, that
is more interested in arguing for political gain, than understanding and
honestly working to solve our problems is ...... very unpatriotic


Let me quickly add, I don't believe anyone REALLY understands all of this
hugely complex mess ... and pretending to is nearly as dangerous as just
arguing for argument's sake. This is not a 'sound bite' level situation,
it's an intensely complicated one. Sound bite radio shows and politicians
( all sides ) are an enemy not a friend of a brighter future.

Those few Senators that went into a room together to try and hammer out a
'compromise,' each one undoubtedly aware that his or her own ideas may or
may not be the best or most useful, but that something had to be done, are
the heroes of the "stimulus" thus far, imho.

Those that COULD HAVE opened that door and joined them, but chose to stay
outside and chant politics about being 'left out' to the TV cameras
......... deserve our contempt. They have mine.

..

On Feb 9, 7:10*pm, "Larry L" wrote:
I ran my own small biz for 30 years and usually had an employee or two, and
for the 10 years before that I was in middle management of a large company
and responsible for budget and staffing of my dept, about 10 peoples job's
were at stake. * *Those 40 years are my entire education in "economics," so
I certainly don't claim to be expert. * * But, I see things posted here that
seem to be little more than blindly repeated, politically inspired, bunk, so
my own contributions can't fall too far below the bar that has been set.

//////////////////////////////////

Thoughts on ..

1) "creating jobs"

Every one of the millions of jobs that have been lost recently was "created"
at some previous time. * * Creating is damn easy, I could create one this
morning by simply hiring a "ranch manager." * *Problem is, I'd have to lay
him off this afternoon because I ran out of funds to support that job.
The "creating" is, at best, worthless unless they can be sustained.

It's true that 'Money' creates jobs, but, in most cases, *that does NOT mean
what people think. * * *Job's created by true venture capitalists are, I'm
sure, a very small % of the total. * * And venture capital does damn little
to sustain those jobs, the ideas, products and people 'capitalized' have to
produce and sell or the jobs soon vanish.

The money *that matters most is the money that inspires and sustains a job.

For a simplistic example, let's say I own a small sto * *The business at
that store gradually grows and I notice lines at the registers, looks of
frustration in the faces of my increasing clientele when help isn't
available quickly. * *THEIR money, that I hope they will spend in my store,
is my inspiration to add an employee .... AND it's the money that will keep
that new guy employed, hopefully for years. * * Any money of my own ( or
borrowed ) that I use to get a new cash register, etc. is only a very short
term investment ... 'money' true, but not the really important money. * *The
important money is the money the average customer is spending, over the long
term.

And that important money must be available in quantity greater than just
enough to pay the new guys salary. * I am a business man and I must recover
that salary, the money I spent on the register and interest, and increase my
profits. * *Tending to the problems associated with employees simply isn't
worth having another one UNLESS he makes me more than he costs me ...
obviously. * * *Most businesses, regardless of size, add employees slowly,
one at a time nearly ( obviously there are seasonal exceptions and very
rapidly growing market ones too ). * It's generally better biz to be a tiny
bit short handed than overstaffed. * *Taking a short term windfall to
'create a new job" unless the prospects of the long term flow of Mr.
Average's money will sustain that job is BAD business ... taking "$300,000
to creat 30 jobs" without a market to support them is pure folly.

The 'money' that is going to make my theoretical new guy's job possible as a
practical matter isn't MY "rich guy creating jobs' money, it's Joe Average's
money he spends and puts into the economy, partly via my store. * * I have
customers from all levels of the economy, the wealthy ones are steady
shoppers buying about the same in good times and bad, but it's the "Joes"
that buy when they can, don't when they have to cut back, that make the new
guys job secure, or not.

/////////////

other thoughts may follow in other posts

Jobs are created largely by means of intangibles, and one of those is
confidence. Value of money is merely one of the outward signs of that
confidence. If sufficient people lose confidence in the value of that
money, ( or loans, or shares, or firms themselves, or many other
things), the perceived value drops. They only represent what people
think they are worth, and have no intrinsic value.

The global disaster caused by people ( largely parasites who do
virtually no useful work), trading on loans, and operating a host of
other similar scams, which have no direct value at all, ( like
property, or a piece of bread), is still unfolding. Although
originally the collapse of American scams was to blame, the effect is
like knocking over a row of dominoes.

All the whinging and whining merely serves to sap consumer confidence,
and lower values still further,which destroys jobs, among other
things.

TL
MC

On Feb 9, 9:33*pm, wrote:
On Feb 9, 7:10*pm, "Larry L" wrote:



I ran my own small biz for 30 years and usually had an employee or two, and
for the 10 years before that I was in middle management of a large company
and responsible for budget and staffing of my dept, about 10 peoples job's
were at stake. * *Those 40 years are my entire education in "economics," so
I certainly don't claim to be expert. * * But, I see things posted here that
seem to be little more than blindly repeated, politically inspired, bunk, so
my own contributions can't fall too far below the bar that has been set..

//////////////////////////////////

Thoughts on ..

1) "creating jobs"

Every one of the millions of jobs that have been lost recently was "created"
at some previous time. * * Creating is damn easy, I could create one this
morning by simply hiring a "ranch manager." * *Problem is, I'd have to lay
him off this afternoon because I ran out of funds to support that job.
The "creating" is, at best, worthless unless they can be sustained.

It's true that 'Money' creates jobs, but, in most cases, *that does NOT mean
what people think. * * *Job's created by true venture capitalists are, I'm
sure, a very small % of the total. * * And venture capital does damn little
to sustain those jobs, the ideas, products and people 'capitalized' have to
produce and sell or the jobs soon vanish.

The money *that matters most is the money that inspires and sustains a job.

For a simplistic example, let's say I own a small sto * *The business at
that store gradually grows and I notice lines at the registers, looks of
frustration in the faces of my increasing clientele when help isn't
available quickly. * *THEIR money, that I hope they will spend in my store,
is my inspiration to add an employee .... AND it's the money that will keep
that new guy employed, hopefully for years. * * Any money of my own ( or
borrowed ) that I use to get a new cash register, etc. is only a very short
term investment ... 'money' true, but not the really important money. * *The
important money is the money the average customer is spending, over the long
term.

And that important money must be available in quantity greater than just
enough to pay the new guys salary. * I am a business man and I must recover
that salary, the money I spent on the register and interest, and increase my
profits. * *Tending to the problems associated with employees simply isn't
worth having another one UNLESS he makes me more than he costs me ...
obviously. * * *Most businesses, regardless of size, add employees slowly,
one at a time nearly ( obviously there are seasonal exceptions and very
rapidly growing market ones too ). * It's generally better biz to be a tiny
bit short handed than overstaffed. * *Taking a short term windfall to
'create a new job" unless the prospects of the long term flow of Mr.
Average's money will sustain that job is BAD business ... taking "$300,000
to creat 30 jobs" without a market to support them is pure folly.

The 'money' that is going to make my theoretical new guy's job possible as a
practical matter isn't MY "rich guy creating jobs' money, it's Joe Average's
money he spends and puts into the economy, partly via my store. * * I have
customers from all levels of the economy, the wealthy ones are steady
shoppers buying about the same in good times and bad, but it's the "Joes"
that buy when they can, don't when they have to cut back, that make the new
guys job secure, or not.

/////////////

other thoughts may follow in other posts

Jobs are created largely by means of intangibles, and one of those is
confidence. *Value of money is merely one of the outward signs of that
confidence. If sufficient people lose confidence in the value of that
money, ( or loans, or shares, or firms themselves, or many other
things), the perceived value drops. They only represent what people
think they are worth, and have no intrinsic value.

The global disaster caused by people ( largely parasites who do
virtually no useful work), trading on loans, and operating a host of
other similar scams, which have no direct value at all, ( like
property, or a piece of bread), is still unfolding. Although
originally the collapse of American scams was to blame, the effect is
like knocking over a row of dominoes.

All the whinging and whining merely serves to sap consumer confidence,
and lower values still further,which destroys jobs, among other
things.

TL
MC

Also, various governments around the world have now initiated various
"stimulus" packages. These are at best stopgaps, as the "money" they
are using is merely redirected from other things, its value drops even
more as a result. Much of it is also illusory, as it is not possible
to control the value of money in the face of widespread lack of
confidence. This results in inflation, and more and more problems.

You can't eat money, and it's useless if becomes worthless by virtue
of lack of consumer, investor and manufacturer confidence.

Too many people live on the proceeds of scamming others, including
governments, bureacracies, and the until numbers of banks and money-
grubbers, who exist on the basis of greed and scams.

Many many people lack faith in their governments, among many other
things, and this eventually causes disaster in systems which rely on
constant expansion, most especially when those systems are basically
unsound.

TL
MC

On Feb 9, 9:48*pm, wrote:
On Feb 9, 9:33*pm, wrote:



On Feb 9, 7:10*pm, "Larry L" wrote:

I ran my own small biz for 30 years and usually had an employee or two, and
for the 10 years before that I was in middle management of a large company
and responsible for budget and staffing of my dept, about 10 peoples job's
were at stake. * *Those 40 years are my entire education in "economics," so
I certainly don't claim to be expert. * * But, I see things posted here that
seem to be little more than blindly repeated, politically inspired, bunk, so
my own contributions can't fall too far below the bar that has been set.

//////////////////////////////////

Thoughts on ..

1) "creating jobs"

Every one of the millions of jobs that have been lost recently was "created"
at some previous time. * * Creating is damn easy, I could create one this
morning by simply hiring a "ranch manager." * *Problem is, I'd have to lay
him off this afternoon because I ran out of funds to support that job..
The "creating" is, at best, worthless unless they can be sustained.

It's true that 'Money' creates jobs, but, in most cases, *that does NOT mean
what people think. * * *Job's created by true venture capitalists are, I'm
sure, a very small % of the total. * * And venture capital does damn little
to sustain those jobs, the ideas, products and people 'capitalized' have to
produce and sell or the jobs soon vanish.

The money *that matters most is the money that inspires and sustains a job.

For a simplistic example, let's say I own a small sto * *The business at
that store gradually grows and I notice lines at the registers, looks of
frustration in the faces of my increasing clientele when help isn't
available quickly. * *THEIR money, that I hope they will spend in my store,
is my inspiration to add an employee .... AND it's the money that will keep
that new guy employed, hopefully for years. * * Any money of my own ( or
borrowed ) that I use to get a new cash register, etc. is only a very short
term investment ... 'money' true, but not the really important money. * *The
important money is the money the average customer is spending, over the long
term.

And that important money must be available in quantity greater than just
enough to pay the new guys salary. * I am a business man and I must recover
that salary, the money I spent on the register and interest, and increase my
profits. * *Tending to the problems associated with employees simply isn't
worth having another one UNLESS he makes me more than he costs me ...
obviously. * * *Most businesses, regardless of size, add employees slowly,
one at a time nearly ( obviously there are seasonal exceptions and very
rapidly growing market ones too ). * It's generally better biz to be a tiny
bit short handed than overstaffed. * *Taking a short term windfall to
'create a new job" unless the prospects of the long term flow of Mr.
Average's money will sustain that job is BAD business ... taking "$300,000
to creat 30 jobs" without a market to support them is pure folly.

The 'money' that is going to make my theoretical new guy's job possible as a
practical matter isn't MY "rich guy creating jobs' money, it's Joe Average's
money he spends and puts into the economy, partly via my store. * * I have
customers from all levels of the economy, the wealthy ones are steady
shoppers buying about the same in good times and bad, but it's the "Joes"
that buy when they can, don't when they have to cut back, that make the new
guys job secure, or not.

/////////////

other thoughts may follow in other posts

Jobs are created largely by means of intangibles, and one of those is
confidence. *Value of money is merely one of the outward signs of that
confidence. If sufficient people lose confidence in the value of that
money, ( or loans, or shares, or firms themselves, or many other
things), the perceived value drops. They only represent what people
think they are worth, and have no intrinsic value.

The global disaster caused by people ( largely parasites who do
virtually no useful work), trading on loans, and operating a host of
other similar scams, which have no direct value at all, ( like
property, or a piece of bread), is still unfolding. Although
originally the collapse of American scams was to blame, the effect is
like knocking over a row of dominoes.

All the whinging and whining merely serves to sap consumer confidence,
and lower values still further,which destroys jobs, among other
things.

TL
MC

Also, various governments around the world have now initiated various
"stimulus" packages. These are at best stopgaps, as the "money" they
are using is merely redirected from other things, its value drops even
more as a result. Much of it is also illusory, as it is not possible
to control the value of money in the face of widespread lack of
confidence. This results in inflation, and more and more problems.

You can't eat money, and it's useless if becomes worthless by virtue
of lack of consumer, investor and manufacturer confidence.

Too many people live on the proceeds of scamming others, including
governments, bureacracies, and the until numbers of banks and money-
grubbers, who exist on the basis of greed and scams.

Many many people lack faith in their governments, among many other
things, and this eventually causes disaster in systems which rely on
constant expansion, most especially when those systems are basically
unsound.

TL
MC

For "and the until numbers " read and the UNTOLD numbers"

On Feb 9, 9:50*pm, wrote:

Also, there is a widespread lack of confidence and belief in a whole
host of governments, as people realise they are largely incompetent,
and merely riding on the backs of those who actually produce
something. There may be a few idealists, but the vast majority of
politicians are politicians for personal power and gain. Same goes for
banks, investment scam artists, and all the other similar stuff. They
are no better than criminals who steal your money directly.

TL
MC

wrote


All the whinging and whining merely serves to sap consumer confidence,
and lower values still further,which destroys jobs, among other
things.

TL
MC


\////////////////////////////

CONFIDENCE

this is one thing that strikes me as one of the biggest challenges facing
our 'leaders'



We have an entire 'side' that is actively trying to erode confidence, hoping
for personal political gain at the expense of the country


We have a leader that tells us daily how bad things are going to be,
certainly partly for political gain, but also because we need to be warned
to avoid panic, prepare, and plan for recovery, personal and worldwide.

'Pollyanna' confidence is out of line, reality needs to be understood ....
"their plan can't work, so just suffer until you can elect us" efforts to
undermine recovery are,
well,
efforts to undermine recovery .... pick you own words for that,

mine come close to 'traitor'

Larry L ( who thinks effort, real effort, even effort that falls sort of
'ideal goals' ... always outperforms bitching, .... but knows the wingnuts
prefer to bitch, Rush has built his fortune on it, Mr Negativity that he
is )

On Feb 9, 10:06*pm, "Larry L" wrote:
wrote

All the whinging and whining merely serves to sap consumer confidence,
and lower values still further,which destroys jobs, among other
things.

TL
MC

\////////////////////////////

CONFIDENCE

this is one thing that strikes me as one of the biggest challenges facing
our 'leaders'

We have an entire 'side' that is actively trying to erode confidence, hoping
for personal political gain at the expense of the country

We have a leader that tells us daily how bad things are going to be,
certainly partly for political gain, but also because we need to be warned
to avoid panic, prepare, and plan for recovery, personal and worldwide.

'Pollyanna' confidence is out of line, *reality needs to be understood .....
"their plan can't work, so just suffer until you can elect us" efforts to
undermine recovery are,
well,
efforts to undermine recovery .... pick you own words for that,

mine come close to 'traitor'

Larry L ( who thinks effort, real effort, even effort that falls sort of
'ideal goals' ... always outperforms bitching, .... but knows the wingnuts
prefer to bitch, Rush has built his fortune on it, Mr Negativity that he
is )

This is also basically a scam, large chunks of the media rely on
disaster and contention to sell their "news". Eventually, many
sensible people realise that this is actually worth less than a fart
in a hurricane, but if enough believe it, it has deleterious effects.
Also, the operating word here is "sensible". There are surprisingly
few sensible and honourable people, especiall when it comes to
personal gain or power.

Basically the same thing that destroyed this newsgroup as a fishing
forum. If enough people undermine something, it eventually collapses.

Political systems in many (democratic) countries are largely based on
contention of basic views on how things should be run. In practice, it
does not actually make a great deal of difference who actually
governs, as long as things are stable. When things start to go wrong,
mismanagement makes them worse, it is also largely irrelevant which
political party does the actual mismanagement, the effects are the
same.

Major issues like overpopulation, the rapid depletion of resources,
and a host of other things, are barely even sensibly addressed by
various governments.

Whatever. No point in adding my voice to the clamour here.

TL
MC

"Larry L" wrote in message
...

very well thought out piece, snipped

In a way, Larry, you get to part of what I was trying to get at.....a lot of
the business of job creation depends on the outlook of the potential
customers that are going to drive your(or any) business. Much of what the
current proposals aim at, are a dire attempt to at least stabilize an ever
more pessimistic public mindset, which is driving a downward spiral.
Tom