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#1
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Way OT-- Electoral Breakdown
www.electoral-vote.com, www.electoral-vote.com/info/graph.html
For the Bushies out there, try www.electionprojection.com, which matches the former almost peak to peak, but hasn't been updated since early this week. There's been a 20 point shift from "strong Kerry" to "weak Kerry", but in recent weeks, MI, and most recently OH and FL, have gone from pink to light blue. The Republican Convention is yet to happen, but it looks like the Sept and Oct job reports will tell the story Scott |
#3
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Way OT-- Electoral Breakdown
ojunk (George Adams) wrote in
: I guess it depends on the sampling method used. I saw a similar thing on the internet earlier this week, ( I don't remember where ), that showed Bush ahead by over 100 electoral votes. I strongly suspect their sample was skewed heavily to the right. Well, out of electoral-vote.com, electionprojection.com, federalreview.com, coldheartedtruth.com, and Dale's EC breakdown, all of them have Kerry ahead by at least 60 electoral votes. If you count their smallest separations (the close coin tosses, or 5%), the least amount of electoral votes Kerry gets on any of these sites is 295 (except for coldheartedtruth, which considers every state below a 10% difference to be a battleground state), and the most is around 316 (from coldheartedtruth). The Federal Review Election Simulation (right-wing site) http://www.federalreview.com/evsim.htm of this week gives Kerry a 72% chance of winning, and that site seems to come from the right. The NY Times has Kerry and 168, and Bush 190, but they won't assign swing states, and are the only site I found that still have Michigan as a swing state and VA as a leaning republican state. They have some pretty sure- thing states listed as swing, and some iffy states listed as republican. Looks to me like the "liberal press" is trying to make this look like a close race. Hard to tell how the economy is doing here until Kodak is finished laying people off. Jobs have been flat here, and manufacturing seems to not be recovering in the region. http://www.sagarmatha.com/jobs2.gif tells an interesting story. Scott |
#4
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Way OT-- Electoral Breakdown
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#5
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Way OT-- Electoral Breakdown
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#6
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Way OT-- Electoral Breakdown
Scott Seidman wrote:
The Republican Convention is yet to happen, but it looks like the Sept and Oct job reports will tell the story It's not the WHOLE story. There's also the question of how many blacks Jeb Bush succeeds in purging from the roles (while not touching Hispanics) because they have the same name as a felon somewhere in the country, whether there will be fraud in the electronic voting machines, what October surprise Karl Rove can dream up, etc. -- Cut "to the chase" for my email address. |
#7
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Way OT-- Electoral Breakdown
Scott Seidman wrote:
The Republican Convention is yet to happen, but it looks like the Sept and Oct job reports will tell the story It's not the WHOLE story. There's also the question of how many blacks Jeb Bush succeeds in purging from the roles (while not touching Hispanics) because they have the same name as a felon somewhere in the country, whether there will be fraud in the electronic voting machines, what October surprise Karl Rove can dream up, etc. -- Cut "to the chase" for my email address. |
#8
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Way OT-- Electoral Breakdown
George Adams wrote:
The polls that seemed most accurate in the 2000 election, were those which sampled "likely voters". A big intangible that the pools don't measure well, especially when they focus on "likely voters," is that the Democratic base is more energized and united than ever in recent memory (largely because they detest Bush and his extremist Neocon administration and its miserable record), while the Republican base is demoralized and on the defensive. Republicans tend to vote more reliably than Democrats, but this year might be different. -- Cut "to the chase" for my email address. |
#9
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Way OT-- Electoral Breakdown
George Adams wrote:
The polls that seemed most accurate in the 2000 election, were those which sampled "likely voters". A big intangible that the pools don't measure well, especially when they focus on "likely voters," is that the Democratic base is more energized and united than ever in recent memory (largely because they detest Bush and his extremist Neocon administration and its miserable record), while the Republican base is demoralized and on the defensive. Republicans tend to vote more reliably than Democrats, but this year might be different. -- Cut "to the chase" for my email address. |
#10
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Way OT-- Electoral Breakdown
csmonitor.com has a very informative exposé on the Neocons.
http://csmonitor.com/specials/neocon/index.html?s=entg2 Mark "rw" wrote in message ... George Adams wrote: The polls that seemed most accurate in the 2000 election, were those which sampled "likely voters". A big intangible that the pools don't measure well, especially when they focus on "likely voters," is that the Democratic base is more energized and united than ever in recent memory (largely because they detest Bush and his extremist Neocon administration and its miserable record), while the Republican base is demoralized and on the defensive. Republicans tend to vote more reliably than Democrats, but this year might be different. |
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