Some more spill info...

The latest (potential) mess involves the clean-up. A little backstory is in
order.

In the aftermath of Katrina, the debris cleanup, trailer moving and set-up,
etc., was contracted to several large "prime" contractors who then subbed the
actual work to sub-contractors. One of the issues was the how the clean-up
payments were handled. Neither cubic yardage or weight proved to be "safe"
methods as if yardage was used, the workers would "fluff" the trailers, thereby
getting many more loads than they would have had they been fully loaded. If
weight were the criteria, then it was fairly easy to pump that up. A variety of
methods were tried to make it fair for all, but there was a lot of iffy payments
as well as some outright fraud (like taking the same load through multiple
times). What does this have to do with the spill, one might ask? Well, since
essentially no one has any experience with this type of thing, most importantly
those doing the actual clean-up, there is a potential problem.

As many have seen, the pictures widely distributed show people in Tyveks
shoveling sand and "tarballs" into "garbage" bags. If one looks closely, it is
clear that in most cases, there is far more sand being gathered than "tar ball."
Some would argue that all of the surrounding sand is "contaminated" and it must
be gathered as well (not surprisingly, the subs fully support this premise). And
the reasonableness of that aside for the moment, it still leaves a large amount
of sand to deal with (and remember, there is a fair amount of
naturally-occurring "tar balls" constantly washing up, too). So, what this
leaves is _large_ volumes of a fairly heavy product that is now, at least
arguably, "hazardous waste." For those that do not know, not just anyone can
transport "hazardous waste." And as most can guess, once something is
"officially" declared "hazardous waste," this brings a whole new set of rules,
regs, etc. into the picture. Including disposal. And once again, the problem
of paying for the disposal and the associated "fluffing" of those costs. We've
heard reports that in some cases, there may be as much as a cubic yard of sand
gathered with less than a gallon of oil (I've heard even less than a quart).

For those that have no frame of reference, a typical residential home slab for a
typical tract ranch-style house is, for the most part, four inches thick. If
the home's slab is 2000 sq. feet, it contains roughly 25 yards of concrete, and
the volume of the house is roughly 600 cublic yards. A large dump trailer holds
roughly 20 yards, so it would take 30 loads to move this volume of sand.
Assuming the mid-point of 2 quarts per yard of sand, or 300 gallons in the 600
yards, you have approximately 1.5 "yards"of oil (approximately 7.5 gallons per
cubic foot). The average "homeowner" wheelbarrow is about 6 cubic feet, or 45
gallons, so it would be a little under 7 wheelbarrow loads of oil and 2700 loads
of sand.

So what does THAT mean, money-wise, you might ask. Prior to the spill, a 20
yard load of material, in this area and with a material such as sand, cost
roughly 150USD to transport "locally" (usually under 10-15 miles or so, the
material cost not included in the 150.00) and dump it anywhere the buyer wanted
on their property (obviously, this would not have been "hazardous waste"). If
your local "quick lube" oil change place did a coupla-hundred oil changes a
week, they would generate about 300 gallons of "waste oil" (most cars use 5
quarts, some use more, some a little less, and pickups with diesels use
substantially more). The collection company could collect from several of these
in one round trip using a much smaller truck.

Now, however, if each of those loads is "hazardous waste," the cost of
transport, handling, disposal, etc. goes up exponentially, it cannot be dumped
anywhere, etc. What does all this translate into, "real world?" Well, here's a
"real world" answer. Take a small material hauler who has three trucks, one he
drives and two driven by hired drivers. If he can keep all three running on
jobs all day (averaging about 6 loads a day, fairly easy to do if the work is
there), five days a week (VERY unlikely), he can _gross_ about 3000.00 a day
(out of which must come material cost, equipment cost and maintenance, fuel,
insurance, tags, driver pay, etc., etc., etc.) and if he is very lucky, net
maybe 2-3000.00 a week. Realistically, it'd be about half the gross and net
because it is unlikely he could keep all 3 running all day, every day. IAC,
about all he can charge is 150.00 _a load_ for transport.

However, now, he can contract the three at 4500.00 per day (1500.00 per day
each) plus expenses (they even pay for the hazmat cert) and a per diem, without
regard to loads carried. From what I've heard, he can (and from his
perspective, need) only make, at best, two runs per truck per day, so the "wear
and tear" is less. And he is at the very entry level of this pyramid. Based on
Katrina, the sub he works for likely takes around 500.00 per truck and the prime
takes between 500.00 and 1000.00 per truck _per day_, again regardless of number
of loads, for doing little more than getting the subs, doing some basic
paperwork, and handling logistics (IOW, the contract pays 2500-3000.00 a day,
and the levels above take their cut and pay those below). There were a fair
number of "mid-subs" post-Katrina that made multiple millions of dollars with
very little overhead, etc.

Also, I've heard reports that there are many "civilian" boats (IOW, boats that
were not "cleanup' boats pre-spill, such as charter boats, shrimping/fishing
boats, etc.) sitting idle, yet the captains and crews are being paid similar
extraordinary amounts. I've heard one figure of over 10,000.00/day per
boat/crew, at the "prime contractor" level, for a smaller boat with a crew of
3-4, and captains (who would be at bottom of the "contractor chain), getting, or
really, being contracted at, 2500.00 a day, working or not, and if working some
or all expenses are covered. I haven't seen those contracts, but I have heard
first-hand accounts, and I do know a number of people who have been contracted
via the VOO or hazmat transport program, and while I've not asked any for
specifics, what they are saying tends to support these numbers.

TC,
R

I couldn't tell from reading rdean's post (above) what he was trying to say.
It seemed he was mostly concerned with costs associated with cleaning up the ocean front.

This may be missing a much larger point. This oil volcano may be getting ready to
completely rupture its top, thereby releasing enough oil to threaten the food chain
in the entire Atlantic ocean. Or perhaps even worse.

The following is an alarmist quote plucked from http://www.rense.com/general91/oilor.htm
Do I believe the following?
God only knows. You can find almost anything on the net.
If nothing else, it's an interesting read.


SUMMARY OF EXPECTATIONS

At some point the drilled hole in the earth will enlarge itself beneath the wellhead
to weaken the area the wellhead rests upon. The intense pressure will then push the
wellhead off the hole allowing a direct unrestricted flow of oil, etc.

The hole will continue to increase in size allowing more and more oil to rise into the Gulf.
After several billion barrels of oil have been released, the pressure within the massive
cavity five miles beneath the ocean floor will begin to normalize.

This will allow the water, under the intense pressure at 1 mile deep, to be forced into the
hole and the cavity where the oil was. The temperature at that depth is near 400 degrees,
possibly more.

The water will be vaporized and turned into steam, creating an enormous amount of force,
lifting the Gulf floor. It is difficult to know how much water will go down to the core
and therefore, its not possible to fully calculate the
rise of the floor.

The tsunami wave this will create will be anywhere from 20 to 80 feet high, possibly more.
Then the floor will fall into the now vacant chamber. This is how nature will seal the
hole.

Depending on the height of the tsunami, the ocean debris, oil, and existing structures
that will be washed away on shore and inland, will leave the area from 50 to 200 miles
inland devoid of life. Even if the debris is cleaned up, the contaminants that will be in
the ground and water supply will prohibit re-population of these areas for an unknown
number of years.

(End of scientists information release.) From Tom Buyea FL News Service

Well OK.
I just noticed the above doomsday palaver is from the well-known nut case
Jeff Rense. Interesting stuff, never-the-less.

sandy wrote:
I couldn't tell from reading rdean's post (above) what he was trying to say. ...

Allow me to translate.

The oil spill clean up is going to cost way too much. BP is going
to get screwed, the taxpayer is going to get screwed, money will
be wasted hand over fist just like after Katrina. All you really
have to do is get rid of OSHA and the EPA and the unions, especially
the unions, and all the greedy, unscrupulous folks who were poor
before the disaster anyway, and the the whole clean up can be done
for $29.95.

--
Ken Fortenberry

On Wed, 16 Jun 2010 12:51:50 -0500, sandy wrote:

I couldn't tell from reading rdean's post (above) what he was trying to say.

I was simply relaying some numbers to show where this thing _may_ be heading. It
wasn't done specifically for ROFF, so some of it is somewhat out of context.
Simply, the economics of this thing are already ridiculous, but simply alleging
that by saying "a truck driver is making $1500.00 a day," without more to at
least help put it into context, leaves out a lot of necessary info.

It seemed he was mostly concerned with costs associated with cleaning up the ocean front.

In that post as a stand-alone thing, yes. However, that is not my only overall
concern.

This may be missing a much larger point. This oil volcano may be getting ready to
completely rupture its top, thereby releasing enough oil to threaten the food chain
in the entire Atlantic ocean. Or perhaps even worse.

The following is an alarmist quote plucked from http://www.rense.com/general91/oilor.htm
Do I believe the following?
God only knows. You can find almost anything on the net.
If nothing else, it's an interesting read.

It may be interesting, but it is total nonsense. If nothing else, Katrina just
about set the physical limits for "water intrusion" in much of the gulf coast -
there is simply not enough water to get to, much less flood, 50 miles inland,
much less 200. For example, once you are much more than a mile inland in much
of MS, the altitude _rapidly_ increases - for example, there was approximately
30 feet of water at the boat ramp at Diamondhead, MS. However, there are parts
of Diamondhead that are at 35-60 feet elevation above sea level, and even with
30 feet of water _less than one mile away_, some parts stayed above it. 50
miles in would be about Hattiesburg, which is at roughly 150 feet and 200 miles
would be roughly Jackson, at a little over 300 feet (IIRC, 310 at the airport).
IAC, subsurface wells are nothing new, and the "Summary" is gibberish.

TC,
R


SUMMARY OF EXPECTATIONS

At some point the drilled hole in the earth will enlarge itself beneath the wellhead
to weaken the area the wellhead rests upon. The intense pressure will then push the
wellhead off the hole allowing a direct unrestricted flow of oil, etc.

The hole will continue to increase in size allowing more and more oil to rise into the Gulf.
After several billion barrels of oil have been released, the pressure within the massive
cavity five miles beneath the ocean floor will begin to normalize.

This will allow the water, under the intense pressure at 1 mile deep, to be forced into the
hole and the cavity where the oil was. The temperature at that depth is near 400 degrees,
possibly more.

The water will be vaporized and turned into steam, creating an enormous amount of force,
lifting the Gulf floor. It is difficult to know how much water will go down to the core
and therefore, its not possible to fully calculate the
rise of the floor.

The tsunami wave this will create will be anywhere from 20 to 80 feet high, possibly more.
Then the floor will fall into the now vacant chamber. This is how nature will seal the
hole.

Depending on the height of the tsunami, the ocean debris, oil, and existing structures
that will be washed away on shore and inland, will leave the area from 50 to 200 miles
inland devoid of life. Even if the debris is cleaned up, the contaminants that will be in
the ground and water supply will prohibit re-population of these areas for an unknown
number of years.

(End of scientists information release.) From Tom Buyea FL News Service

On Wed, 16 Jun 2010 13:14:39 -0500, Ken Fortenberry
wrote:

sandy wrote:
I couldn't tell from reading rdean's post (above) what he was trying to say. ...

Allow me to translate.

The oil spill clean up is going to cost way too much. BP is going
to get screwed, the taxpayer is going to get screwed, money will
be wasted hand over fist just like after Katrina.

Not quite - no one can predict the future, so there is no way to know if money
_will_ be wasted hand over fist, but every indication thus far points toward it.
And from a financial standpoint, no one, including BP, should "get screwed" in
this.

All you really
have to do is get rid of OSHA and the EPA and the unions, especially
the unions,

No union is involved in this, and the major issue with any involvement by the
EPA or OSHA is those agencies attempting to "shoehorn" the cleanup into existing
rules that aren't truly applicable.

and all the greedy, unscrupulous folks who were poor
before the disaster anyway,

Oops, nope. Thus far, while some of the players involved aren't exactly
wealthy, very few, if any, "poor" people are getting anything (just like the
Katrina aftermath) and likely will not - you cannot compensate an unemployed
person for income they didn't lose, and you cannot compensate, for example, a
roofing laborer or Mickey D's burger-flipper for income loss when they have
suffered none. Most of those who stand to see a windfall in this were at least
moderately comfortable prior to the spill, and the biggest windfall will, again,
go to those at the upper levels of the pyramid.

and the the whole clean up can be done for $29.95.

Never even suggested such a thing.

HTH,
R

On Wed, 16 Jun 2010 13:14:39 -0500, Ken Fortenberry
wrote:

sandy wrote:
I couldn't tell from reading rdean's post (above) what he was trying to say. ...

Allow me to translate.

The oil spill clean up is going to cost way too much. BP is going
to get screwed, the taxpayer is going to get screwed, money will
be wasted hand over fist just like after Katrina. All you really
have to do is get rid of OSHA and the EPA and the unions, especially
the unions, and all the greedy, unscrupulous folks who were poor
before the disaster anyway, and the the whole clean up can be done
for $29.95.


And speaking of the "poor," the guy that Obama talked about in his speech
yesterday, Mike Pinzone, is hardly "poor":

"Pinzone opened a small pizza shop on the beach 13 years ago and has since
expanded into half a dozen businesses. He has $2 million invested into
businesses along the fishing pier.

Compared with last year, Pinzone is down $100,000 in sales from April through
June at his businesses. Sales at the fish shack have dropped by 90 percent from
$5,000 to $500 on some days. He filed a claim with BP a month ago and has
received two checks totaling $10,000."

I don't think his mentioning April is gonna help his cause much...esp. to
national news media...

Another business person the national media has quoted, a marina owner, says his
income is down 50K, he has had to lay off 3-4 people at the marina's restaurant
(out of a staff of probably 50 at the marina), and while his full claim hasn't
been paid, he, too, has received 10 grand. A quick calculation, knowing what
slippage charges are in the area, would indicate his basically full marina is
grossing well north of 100K a month _on slippage alone_. And if he is seeing
the drastically increased fuel sales, ship's store sales, haul-out charges,
etc., that _some_ marinas are seeing, he well may have done no more than trade
income (and expense) at the marina's restaurant for income (and less expense) at
the actual marina side of things. I do not know the specifics at that marina
and make no claim about anything related to that marina.

Oh, and the "poor" people laid-off? Not a single mention of what they have or
have not received, if anything, either by him or the media. And I'd offer that
these business owners can wait a little longer and take a hit a little better
than one of the waitstaff laid off or a fry cook at the fish shack.

HTH,
R

On Jun 16, 11:14*am, Ken Fortenberry
wrote:
sandy wrote:
I couldn't tell from reading rdean's post (above) what he was trying to say. ...

Allow me to translate.

The oil spill clean up is going to cost way too much. BP is going
to get screwed, the taxpayer is going to get screwed, money will
be wasted hand over fist just like after Katrina. All you really
have to do is get rid of OSHA and the EPA and the unions, especially
the unions, and all the greedy, unscrupulous folks who were poor
before the disaster anyway, and the the whole clean up can be done
for $29.95.

--
Ken Fortenberry

Yep. I particularly find RDs revelation that all kinds of rip-off are
possible down there in the nether regions. DUHHHH. HELLO?

Doesn't he understand that most of the rest of the country is well
aware of the reputation of La., Texas, Mississippi and So. Florida as
the fraud and corruption capitols of the USA? New Jersey has long
since lost that dishonored position, and Chicago is mostly limited to
the pols. But when it comes to ripping off the people of the USA with
things like endemic Medicare fraud, Corps of Engineers contracting
scams, class action scams, drug money laundering, etc etc, why it's
just no contest as to which part of the country marches to that
drummer.

wrote:
snip
Most of those who stand to see a windfall in this were at least
moderately comfortable prior to the spill, and the biggest windfall will, again,
go to those at the upper levels of the pyramid.

The biggest windfall will go, as always, to big oil. Everybody
else will get screwed the same way Alaskans got screwed after
Exxon Valdez.

What is funny, in a really perverse sort of way, is watching you
leading the apologia/cheering section for big oil here on a
fly fishing group. Most folks are concerned about the environment
and the people of the Gulf while your biggest concern appears
to be that BP should be able to lawyer their way out of spending
more than a pittance in compensation for the biggest environmental
disaster in US history. Like I said, perverse.

--
Ken Fortenberry