New Orleans, Monday night....

Any bets? Will it hit? Will David Paulison do "a heckuva job"...?

Stay tuned.

--riverman

On Thu, 28 Aug 2008 02:18:01 -0700 (PDT), riverman
wrote:

Any bets?

You're on. How much?

Will it hit?

No.


Ball's in your court,
R

Will David Paulison do "a heckuva job"...?

Stay tuned.

--riverman

On Aug 28, 4:18*am, riverman wrote:
Any bets? Will it hit? Will David Paulison do "a heckuva job"...?

Stay tuned.

Well, I'm looking for Gustav to nail the oil fields in the Gulf (about
a 100 miles west of New Orleans) head on and then come up to Nebraska
as a disapated low for some brats, saurkraut and beer (washing my
fancy grass seed down to Missouri). Back at the ranch, Hanna, now
called TD08 is gonna take Florida by storm, crushing Miami in a
vise.
Fill up your gas cans now, sit back and watch how the administration
handles a disaster in a city that the right actually cares about.
Frank Reid
You heard it here first

On Aug 28, 8:17*pm, wrote:
On Thu, 28 Aug 2008 02:18:01 -0700 (PDT), riverman
wrote:

Any bets?

You're on. *How much?

Will it hit?

No.

Ball's in your court,
R


And considering how much the predicted path has shifted west in the
last few hours, I withdraw my bet. (sheepish grin)

Still, it could be worse. I could have won....

--riverman

On Aug 28, 9:14*pm, riverman wrote:
On Aug 28, 8:17*pm, wrote:

On Thu, 28 Aug 2008 02:18:01 -0700 (PDT), riverman
wrote:

Any bets?

You're on. *How much?

Will it hit?

No.

Ball's in your court,
R

And considering how much the predicted path has shifted west in the
last few hours, I withdraw my bet. (sheepish grin)

Still, it could be worse. I could have won....

--riverman

Shoulda hung in there for the bet, but in any case, the NOAA website
only puts a 50% prob of a storm surge of 5+ feet in NO.

In any case, here's a webcam on Bourbon St.
http://www.tropicalisle.com/webcam.html

--riverman

On Mon, 1 Sep 2008 05:13:05 -0700 (PDT), riverman
wrote:

On Aug 28, 9:14*pm, riverman wrote:
On Aug 28, 8:17*pm, wrote:

On Thu, 28 Aug 2008 02:18:01 -0700 (PDT), riverman
wrote:

Any bets?

You're on. *How much?

Will it hit?

No.

Ball's in your court,
R

And considering how much the predicted path has shifted west in the
last few hours, I withdraw my bet. (sheepish grin)

Still, it could be worse. I could have won....

--riverman

Shoulda hung in there for the bet,

And you would have lost - it's essentially a sucker bet. It is all but
impossible for a hurricane to hit at New Orleans - it would have to come
up the Mississippi or weave up through the Rigolets, etc., into
Pontchartrain and suddenly hook down. Even Houma really isn't accurate
(it's inland), but it's more readily identifiable than "'bout out dere
whe' Sammy Mitot and Paul Broussard...no, no, no, da son, not da daddy -
he still mad to Sammy...caught all dem specs last week" to y'all folks
that don't know Sammy and Paul...or his daddy...

but in any case, the NOAA website only puts a 50% prob of a storm
surge of 5+ feet in NO.

There is 0% chance of such a thing. Where did you see this? That's
just ridiculous, crazy, and dangerous information to put out (them, not
you, as you'd have no way of knowing whether it was accurate).

In any case, here's a webcam on Bourbon St.
http://www.tropicalisle.com/webcam.html

And there are several more at nola.com (about the best starting point
for NO info, including the Times-Picayune. A lot of the city has power
out right now, so only some of the cams are working. But as of right
now, the Quarter/Vieux Carre is OK, as is the Garden District, Uptown,
and up St. Charles.

--riverman

TC,
R

wrote:
...
And there are several more at nola.com (about the best starting point
for NO info, including the Times-Picayune. A lot of the city has power
out right now, so only some of the cams are working. But as of right
now, the Quarter/Vieux Carre is OK, as is the Garden District, Uptown,
and up St. Charles.

Good to hear it. We hope your Mom is OK and your place
weathers the storm. Kristine was asking about you guys
last night.

--
Ken Fortenberry

On Mon, 01 Sep 2008 10:07:36 -0500, Ken Fortenberry
wrote:

wrote:
...
And there are several more at nola.com (about the best starting point
for NO info, including the Times-Picayune. A lot of the city has power
out right now, so only some of the cams are working. But as of right
now, the Quarter/Vieux Carre is OK, as is the Garden District, Uptown,
and up St. Charles.

Good to hear it. We hope your Mom is OK and your place
weathers the storm. Kristine was asking about you guys
last night.

Actually, we shut down her house and our place, and she came over to our
place in MS. From what I've seen of the area (from NO to MS), there is
little real damage and thankfully, the chances of there being any is
dropping literally by the minute. Thank Kristine, and K and Tasha say
howdy to all.

TC,
R

On Sep 1, 10:58*pm, wrote:
On Mon, 1 Sep 2008 05:13:05 -0700 (PDT), riverman
wrote:

Shoulda hung in there for the bet,

And you would have lost - it's essentially a sucker bet. *It is all but
impossible for a hurricane to hit at New Orleans - it would have to come
up the Mississippi or weave up through the Rigolets, etc., into
Pontchartrain and suddenly hook down. *

How's that? Are you saying that a storm would have weakened to below
Cat 1 levels by the time it had moved that far inland? I can't imagine
a hurricane moving 'up the Mississippi'...that would be like saying
'drive a cadillac through the eye of a needle'.


but in any case, the NOAA website only puts a 50% prob of a storm
surge of 5+ feet in NO.

There is 0% chance of such a thing. * Where did you see this? *That's
just ridiculous, crazy, and dangerous information to put out (them, not
you, as you'd have no way of knowing whether it was accurate).


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/psurgegraphics_at2.shtml

This link is time-ended, as its a real-time feed. You can zoom in with
your mouse. As far as accuracy, I tend to trust the forecasters at
NOAA more than Geraldo or the average newscast weatherman.

Again, you don't usually make statements without real supporting
evidence: why would it be impossible for a storm surge to reach NO?

--riverman

On Mon, 1 Sep 2008 09:12:11 -0700 (PDT), riverman
wrote:

On Sep 1, 10:58*pm, wrote:
On Mon, 1 Sep 2008 05:13:05 -0700 (PDT), riverman
wrote:

Shoulda hung in there for the bet,

And you would have lost - it's essentially a sucker bet. *It is all but
impossible for a hurricane to hit at New Orleans - it would have to come
up the Mississippi or weave up through the Rigolets, etc., into
Pontchartrain and suddenly hook down. *

How's that? Are you saying that a storm would have weakened to below
Cat 1 levels by the time it had moved that far inland? I can't imagine
a hurricane moving 'up the Mississippi'...that would be like saying
'drive a cadillac through the eye of a needle'.

Ah...if you meant a hurricane passing over NO, sure, that's possible,
but when most folks say "hit" in hurricane areas, they mean "make
official landfall." As such, for NO to be "hit," the two scenarios I
mentioned are the only ways for it to occur. And you are correct in
that it would extremely unlikely (really, just about, but absolutely,
impossible) for a hurricane's official position to follow the river. It
would be just as unlikely for it to come through the Rigolets, too. But
if by "hit" you simply mean "have some form of weather influenced by a
hurricane," then most of the southern US is "hit" by any hurricane in
the Gulf.


but in any case, the NOAA website only puts a 50% prob of a storm
surge of 5+ feet in NO.

There is 0% chance of such a thing. * Where did you see this? *That's
just ridiculous, crazy, and dangerous information to put out (them, not
you, as you'd have no way of knowing whether it was accurate).


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/psurgegraphics_at2.shtml

This link is time-ended, as its a real-time feed. You can zoom in with
your mouse. As far as accuracy, I tend to trust the forecasters at
NOAA more than Geraldo or the average newscast weatherman.

Ah. When I went, most of NO what I assume was the 0% chance (the "base"
color) with the river having a higher chance. But even Katrina didn't
put 5'-plus feet in all of NO, nor have I ever seen a storm that would.
Again, we may be talking a difference in terminology here. If you mean
5' or more of water anywhere within the city limits, then sure - heck,
some heavy rainstorms probably do that. There are areas on the MS coast
that had that, too, but I've not heard any reports of any area of homes
or businesses in NO or even St. Bernard Parish being what most would
call "flooded."

Again, you don't usually make statements without real supporting
evidence: why would it be impossible for a storm surge to reach NO?

I didn't say it would be impossible, just that it certainly didn't
appear to be a 50% (or even a .05% chance) of NO getting 5-plus feet of
surge with this. While I wouldn't have wanted to be in Houma in a tent,
this wasn't much as serious hurricanes go, and when compared to Katrina,
it was little more than a summer shower. For example, for those
following this on the news, if you hear mention of "Diamondhead"
(essentially, Bay St. Louis, MS), it had about 32 feet of surge during
Katrina. I've heard it had about 6 feet with Gustav.

TC,
R

--riverman