OT Food for thought

Peter Charles wrote:





There's no doubt that the WalMartification of the US ecponomy is
causing some shifts and that the current adiminstration's policies are
making things worse, but I doubt the US is going to drop into second
place any time soon. The EU is a bigger economy than that of the US
but, unless the US bullies and scares it into greater unitly, its
members will continue to behave like squabbling hens. China still has
a very long way to go. Russia is only just emerging from basket case
status.

The biggest threat to the US primacy is still an internal one.


In terms of standard of living, China does have a long way to go, but
that just gives them more room for economic growth. China's Gross
Domestic Product has averaged 10% growth over the last 25 years and is
currently at that rate. The US has averaged a little over 3% and is
presently at that rate. By my figures, China's GDP should surpass the
US's within 10 years. After that, I think the US gets left in the dust.
The cat is out of the bag in China and I see their present situation
similar to where the US was during the Industrial Revolution.

Willi

On Sat, 28 Feb 2004 19:01:38 -0700, Willi wrote:



Peter Charles wrote:





There's no doubt that the WalMartification of the US ecponomy is
causing some shifts and that the current adiminstration's policies are
making things worse, but I doubt the US is going to drop into second
place any time soon. The EU is a bigger economy than that of the US
but, unless the US bullies and scares it into greater unitly, its
members will continue to behave like squabbling hens. China still has
a very long way to go. Russia is only just emerging from basket case
status.

The biggest threat to the US primacy is still an internal one.


In terms of standard of living, China does have a long way to go, but
that just gives them more room for economic growth. China's Gross
Domestic Product has averaged 10% growth over the last 25 years and is
currently at that rate. The US has averaged a little over 3% and is
presently at that rate. By my figures, China's GDP should surpass the
US's within 10 years. After that, I think the US gets left in the dust.
The cat is out of the bag in China and I see their present situation
similar to where the US was during the Industrial Revolution.

Willi


Nothing goes straight up forever, especially in economics.

Peter

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Peter Charles wrote:

On Sat, 28 Feb 2004 19:01:38 -0700, Willi wrote:


In terms of standard of living, China does have a long way to go, but
that just gives them more room for economic growth. China's Gross
Domestic Product has averaged 10% growth over the last 25 years and is
currently at that rate. The US has averaged a little over 3% and is
presently at that rate. By my figures, China's GDP should surpass the
US's within 10 years. After that, I think the US gets left in the dust.
The cat is out of the bag in China and I see their present situation
similar to where the US was during the Industrial Revolution.

Willi



Nothing goes straight up forever, especially in economics.


Actually that is part of my argument - but coming from a different point
than yours. China is in the first stages of becoming an industrialized
nation giving them the opportunity for growth in every facet of their
economy. The US's economy is mature with much less opportunity for
growth. Personally, I think it will take less than the 10 year figure I
used. I correspond through emails with a couple gentlemen in China.
Pretty exciting times there right now.

Willi

On Sat, 28 Feb 2004 19:22:14 -0700, Willi wrote:



Peter Charles wrote:

On Sat, 28 Feb 2004 19:01:38 -0700, Willi wrote:


In terms of standard of living, China does have a long way to go, but
that just gives them more room for economic growth. China's Gross
Domestic Product has averaged 10% growth over the last 25 years and is
currently at that rate. The US has averaged a little over 3% and is
presently at that rate. By my figures, China's GDP should surpass the
US's within 10 years. After that, I think the US gets left in the dust.
The cat is out of the bag in China and I see their present situation
similar to where the US was during the Industrial Revolution.

Willi



Nothing goes straight up forever, especially in economics.


Actually that is part of my argument - but coming from a different point
than yours. China is in the first stages of becoming an industrialized
nation giving them the opportunity for growth in every facet of their
economy. The US's economy is mature with much less opportunity for
growth. Personally, I think it will take less than the 10 year figure I
used. I correspond through emails with a couple gentlemen in China.
Pretty exciting times there right now.

Willi



It depends on how they are managing their growth (and I have no info
on this whatsoever). Inflation could bite their ass, debt perhaps,
social unrest. Who knows, but I don't think I'd want to bet against
them.

Peter

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